脑卒中影响因素和风险评估的纵向队列研究  

Risk assessment and prediction longitudinal cohort research for stroke

作　　者：曹兆 刘相佟 吕世云 金瑞 陈硕[2] 康晓平 张静波[2] 郭秀花 CAO Zhao;LIU Xiangtong;LV Shiyun;JIN Rui;CHEN Shuo;KANG Xiaoping;ZHANG Jingbo;GUO Xiuhua(School of Public Health,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069,China)

机构地区：[1]首都医科大学公共卫生学院临床流行病学北京市重点实验室,100069 [2]北京市体检中心信息科 [3]北京市小汤山医院办公室

出　　处：《心肺血管病杂志》2022年第4期333-337,共5页Journal of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Diseases

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(81773512,81872708)。

摘　　要：目的:构建脑卒中风险评估模型并检测其效能。方法:共纳入38098例职业人群,筛选脑卒中相关风险因素进入模型,通过Bootstrap重抽样及十字交叉验证法预测模型效果,构建Logistic多因素预测模型及列线图模型。结果:脑卒中的危险因素包括:年龄、性别、婚姻状态、教育程度、BMI、吸烟、喝奶频率、饮酒、睡眠时间、高血压、血脂异常、父母脑血管病病史、父母高血压史,风险预测模型的AUC值为0.82。结论:本研究构建了列线图模型,可为临床工作者和使用者提供可直观评估的脑卒中发病风险预测工具。Objective:To establish stroke characteristics and practical evaluation model.Methods:A total of 38,098 subjects were included in this study,and the variables entering the model were screened by single-factor analysis results.Resampling by Bootstrap cross-verification method,the multi-factor prediction model and nomogram were constructed by logistic.Results:The risk factors of stroke included:age,gender,marriage,education,BMI,smoking,milk,drinking alcohol,sleep time,hypertension,dyslipidemia,parents'history of cerebrovascular disease,parents'history of hypertension,and the AUC value of the prediction model was 0.82.Conclusions:This study creates a nomogram model,providing a visualization tool for the rapid identification of high-risk population with stroke.

关 键 词：脑卒中 风险评估预测模型 列线图 危险因素 纵向研究 

分 类 号：R54[医药卫生—心血管疾病]