经济周期下黄金价格相关性研究  

Study on the correlation of gold price under economic cycle

作　　者：刘贤祥 Liu Xianxiang(Zhaoyuan Rural Economic Running and Management Service Center)

机构地区：[1]招远市农村经济经营管理服务中心,265400

出　　处：《黄金》2022年第6期1-6,共6页Gold

摘　　要：经济周期及各经济指标与黄金价格的相关性研究对判定黄金价格走势具有重要意义。研究发现经济周期与黄金价格呈一定的负相关关系,即当经济处于复苏期和繁荣期时,黄金价格走势呈弱势;当经济处于萧条期和衰退期时,黄金价格走势呈强势;美元指数、美债收益率、实际收益率与黄金价格呈负相关关系,原油价格、通货膨胀率与黄金价格呈正相关关系。研究结果可为黄金价格走势判断提供参考。The study on the correlation between gold price and economic cycle and each economic index is crucial to make judgment on gold price trend.The study finds out that the gold price trend has a certain negative correlation with the economic cycle, that is, when the economy is in the recovery and prosperity stage, the gold price trend shows a weak trend;when the economy is in the stagflation and recession stage, the gold price trend shows a strong trend.US dollar index, US bond return rate, actual return rate are generally in negative correlation with gold price, while oil price, inflation index are in positive correlation with gold price.The results can provide reference for the judgment of gold price trend.

关 键 词：黄金价格 经济周期 相关系数 美元指数 实际收益率 

分 类 号：F830.94[经济管理—金融学]