淮北平原地下水埋深变化对气候变化的响应及预测  

Response and prediction of groundwater depth changes to climate change in the Huaibei Plain of China

作　　者：鞠琴 刘小妮 刘智天 高慧滨 赵雯颉 尼玛扎西 郝文龙 Ju Qin;Liu Xiaoni;Liu Zhitian;Gao Huibin;Zhao Wenjie;Nima Zhaxi;Hao Wenlong(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Power China Kunming Engineering Corporation Ltd.,Kunming 650051,China;Ali Hydrology and Water Resources Sub-Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey of Tibet Autonomous Region,Lhasa 850032;College of Energy and Environmental Engineering,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098 [2]中国电建集团昆明勘测设计研究院有限公司,昆明650051 [3]西藏自治区水文水资源勘测局阿里水文水资源分局,拉萨850032 [4]河北工程大学能源与环境工程学院,邯郸056038

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2022年第7期136-145,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52179013);国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFC3201104);“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金资助(2019490911)。

摘　　要：分析气候变化下的地下水埋深变化对区域未来的水资源利用和长期规划有着重要的意义。该研究利用五道沟水文实验站实测资料,分析淮北平原地下水埋深历史变化,在评估考虑了潜水蒸发的地下水埋深迭代算法在淮北平原的适用性的基础上,以CMIP5中三种气候模式的未来降水为主要影响因子,通过多模式集成方法,预估未来气候变化下淮北平原地下水埋深变化。结果表明:淮北平原地下水埋深年际变化波动较大,多年平均地下水埋深在季节上表现为春季(2.52 m)>冬季(2.49 m)>秋季(2.21 m)>夏季(2.17 m),空间上整体呈由北向南逐渐变浅的变化趋势;考虑了潜水蒸发的地下水埋深迭代算法对淮北平原地下水埋深变化趋势的模拟结果与实际变化趋势基本一致;在RCP4.5情景下,未来降水量将持续增加的影响,地下水埋深年内月变化先降低后增加,7月最浅为0.73 m,1月最深为4.22 m;季节变化夏季最浅0.94 m,冬季最深为3.98 m,但年变化整体呈下降趋势,起伏相对较小。研究结果对合理调控区域水资源及水环境保护具有重要的借鉴和指导意义。The evolution of groundwater depth under climate change can dominate the future water resources utilization and long-term planning of the region.In this study,the measured data from the Wudaogou hydrological experimental station in the Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province was divided into the calibration period(1976-2010) and the validation period(2011-2018).An improved Ye Shuiting formula was proposed to improve the simulation accuracy of diving evaporation,and then to establish an iterative groundwater depth algorithm.After that,the dynamic groundwater change was simulated with the influence factors of precipitation and groundwater evaporation.The applicability of the algorithm was also assessed to consider the groundwater evaporation in the study area.The simulation performance of the climate models was evaluated using three assessment indicators,including the mean relative error,correlation coefficient,and coefficient of determination.Among them,the future precipitation of the three climate models in CMIP5 was taken as the main influence factor.At the same time,the simulations of the climate model were corrected to eliminate some systematic biases.A multi-model integrated approach was selected to predict the variations in the groundwater depth under future climate.The results showed that the depth of groundwater fluctuated greatly from year to year,reaching the historical maximum of 3.13 m in 1995 and the lowest depth of 1.71 m in 1980.The multi-year average groundwater depth was 2.55 m.The monthly variation within the year showed a trend of increasing,then decreasing and then increasing,with the lowest groundwater depth in July.The seasonal variation of the multi-year average groundwater depth was ranked in the order of spring(2.52 m) > winter(2.49 m) > autumn(2.21 m) >summer(2.17 m),indicating an overall spatial trend of gradual shallowing from north to south,and the lower groundwater depths in the southeast than that in the southwest.The improved Ye Shuiting formula had better performance in simulating the grou

关 键 词：气候变化 降水 地下水埋深 叶水庭公式 迭代计算法 淮北平原 

分 类 号：P641.74[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]