黄河流域重要断面设计年径流量计算研究  

Study on the Design Annual Runoff of Important Sections in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：杜懿 孟越 陈昱桢 王大刚 DU Yi;MENG Yue;CHEN Yuzhen;WANG Dagang(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《人民黄河》2022年第7期18-23,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51779278)。

摘　　要：以黄河流域3个重要水文站(兰州站、花园口站和利津站)的历史年径流量序列为研究对象,首先对各时间序列进行变异诊断,在诊断结论的基础上再进行设计年径流量计算。分析表明:1919—2018年的兰州站和花园口站年径流量序列均存在较为明显的跳跃性变异,且最大可能变异位置分别为1932年和1990年;1952—2018年的利津站年径流量序列既存在趋势性变异又存在跳跃性变异,整体上年径流量序列呈现出较为显著的下降趋势,且序列的最大可能变异位置为1985年。针对3个水文站年径流量序列的不同特性,分别采用基于跳跃诊断的二次修正法、混合分布法和分解合成法等非一致性水文频率分析方法,计算得到各水文站不同重现期的设计年径流量。Based on thehistorical annual runoff series of three important hydrological sections(Lanzhou,Huayuankou and Lijin)in the Yellow River Basin,after the variation diagnosis of each series,the design annual runoff of each section was calculated.It shows that both three annual runoff series from 1919 to 2018 of Lanzhou and Huayuankou stations exist obvious jump mutation,and the most likely location are in 1932 and 1990;and the annual runoff series from 1952 to 2018 of Lijin Station has both trend mutation and jump mutation,the tendency is marked decline,the mutation location is in 1985.Based on the differences of the annual runoff series of the three stations,the secondary correction method,mixed distribution method and decomposition synthesis are respectively used to calculate the design annual runoff of each station under different recurrence periods.The study can provide scientific guidance for water resources management and reservoir dispatching in the basin.

关 键 词：水文频率分析 设计年径流量 水文变异诊断 混合分布法 分解合成法 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV62[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV882.1