流域水文模型不确定性研究进展  

Research Progress on Uncertainty of Watershed Hydrological Model

作　　者：张京 马金锋[1] 马梅[1,2] ZHANG Jing;MA Jinfeng;MA Mei(State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《人民黄河》2022年第7期30-36,43,共8页Yellow River

基　　金：中国科学院前沿科学重点研究项目(QYZDY-SSW-DQC004);国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFD0901105);国家科技重大专项(2018ZX07111004)。

摘　　要：流域水文模型不确定性显著影响模拟结果的精度,科学分析流域水文模型的不确定性是实际应用过程中的重要环节,对流域水污染科学管理具有重要意义。针对不确定性的分类,着重对近年来流域水文模型在输入数据、参数以及结构方面的不确定性研究进行总结,概述每种不确定性的来源及影响,并从降低流域水文模型不确定性的角度展望未来的研究重点和方向:(1)空间输入数据具有尺度效应,应权衡好模型尺度与计算量、精度的矛盾;(2)优化多源数据融合算法,提高降水数据的完整性和准确度;(3)探究参数动态变化和空间异质性对参数组合的影响;(4)推动并行和集群等高算力手段在多模型耦合模拟中的应用。The uncertainty of watershed hydrological model significantly affects the accuracy of the simulation results.Scientific analysis of the uncertainty of watershed hydrological model is an important step before the practical application,which is of great significance for the scientific management of watershed water pollution.According to the different classification of uncertainty considered,a state art review of watershed hydrological model from three aspects in recent yearswere systematically summarized in this paper,including input data,parameters and model structure.Then,the sources and impacts of each kind of uncertainty were reviewed and presented.Finally,the research emphasis and directions of reducing the uncertainty of watershed hydrological model were suggested as follows:a)Spatial input data had scale effects.The contradiction between model scale and calculation amount and precision should be weighed well;b)Optimizing multi-source data fusion algorithms.Improving the integrity and accuracy of rainfall data;c)Exploring the effects of parameter dynamic change and spatial heterogeneity on the combination of parameters;d)Promoting the application of high computing power methods such as parallel and cluster computing in multi-model coupled simulation.

关 键 词：流域水文模型 不确定性 输入数据 参数 模型结构 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]