准经营性水利PPP项目特许经营期决策模型研究  

Study on the Decision Making Model of Quasi-Commercial Water Conservancy PPP Projects Concession Period

作　　者：盛松涛[1] 郭慧 SHENG Songtao;GUO Hui(School of Hydraulic Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学水利工程学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《人民黄河》2022年第7期137-143,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：湖南省水利科技项目([2016]194-39);长沙理工大学研究生创新项目(CX2020SS49)。

摘　　要：为合理确定PPP项目的特许经营期,构建了准经营性水利PPP项目净现值法的直观计算模型;引入实物期权价值,构建政府方与社会资本方的期权博弈模型,推导出特许经营期计算公式;应用工程案例进行了特许经营期的分析计算,并对主要影响因素进行了敏感性分析。研究表明:考虑PPP项目的实物期权价值,提高了社会资本方拥有的价值,可促使其为长期战略目标而提高项目合作积极性;基于期权博弈模型计算的特许期比传统净现值法计算的结果缩短约4.8%,政府方不必通过延长特许期来促使社会资本方保证合作与建设质量;对各影响因素的敏感率大小依次为水电价格>项目总投资>实物期权价值。与传统的净现值决策模型相比,期权博弈模型决策水利PPP项目的特许经营期更全面科学,有利于水利PPP项目的可持续发展。In order to reasonably determine the concession period of PPP project,an intuitive calculation model of net present value method for quasi-commercial water conservancy PPP project was constructed and the value of real options was introduced.It constructed an option game model between the government and social capital,deduced the calculation model of concession period and applied engineering cases for calculation and analysis of concession period.The research shows that considering the real option value of PPP projects,it increases the value owned by the social capital,which can promote them to increase the enthusiasm of investment for the company’s long-term strategic goals;the concession period calculated based on the option game model is about 4.8%shorter than that of the traditional net present value calculation result;the government does not need to extend the concession period to encourage social capital to improve the quality of project cooperation.Comparing with the traditional net present value decision-making model,the option game model to decide the concession period of water conservancy PPP projects is more comprehensive and scientific,which is conducive to the sustainable development of water conservancy PPP projects.

关 键 词：水利工程PPP项目 特许经营期 净现值法 期权博弈 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程] F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]