A multi-model assessment of climate change damage in China and the world  

作　　者：Tian-Peng WANG Fei TENG 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2022年第3期385-396,共12页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606503);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71673162,71690243).

摘　　要：Quantifying climate damage is essential to informing rational climate policies,but only a few studies have systematically compared the climate damage estimates made by different models,especially for China.In this study,we used three widely applied integrated assessment models-FUND,RICE,and PAGE-to estimate the damage under coupled shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways(RCPs).Results show that the costs of climate damage constitute approximately 1.5%and 0.7%of China's GDP and global GDP per 1℃ temperature rise on average,respectively.Mitigation can reduce climate risk by lowering the average estimate and worst-case effects of climate damage.Compared with business-as-usual emissions(RCP8.5),the 2℃ target will reduce the average estimate of climate damage for China and the world by 93%and 87%,respectively,and by 80%and 84%,respectively,in the worst-case situation.Sectorial analysis of climate damage highlights the inconsistency of sector scope and significant parameter uncertainties in damage modules,requiring further improvement to integrate subfield research advances,particularly for damage related to rising sea levels and cooling energy demand.

关 键 词：Integrated assessment models Climate damage Shared socioeconomic pathways Representative concentration pathways China 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]