“一带一路”沿线城市大气污染的空间交互影响网络及其结构特征  

Spatial interactive influence network and its structural characteristics of air pollution in cities along the Belt and Road

作　　者：刘华军[1] 邵明吉 石印 郭立祥 LIU Huajun;SHAO Mingji;SHI Yin;GUO Lixiang(School of Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan Shandong 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学经济学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2022年第6期76-83,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“‘十四五’时期减污降碳协同效应的实现机制和政策体系研究”(批准号:21BGL003);山东省自然科学基金项目“京津冀及周边地区‘2+26’城市雾霾污染的空间动态交互影响及其驱动因素研究”(批准号:ZR2019MG007);山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划项目“雾霾污染的全球交互影响网络及协同治理战略研究”(批准号:2020RWE001)。

摘　　要：解析大气污染跨国交互影响网络的结构特征是开展大气污染全球合作治理的基础。文章基于“一带一路”沿线63个国家的281个城市PM2.5浓度地面监测数据,在信息流视角下,采用大数据因果推断技术—转移熵(Transfer Entropy)方法识别了大气污染的空间传导关系,并构建大气污染空间交互影响网络,从整体结构、块模型等多个层面揭示“一带一路”沿线大气污染空间交互影响网络的结构特征。研究发现:①在5%的显著性水平下,“一带一路”沿线城市大气污染共存在13335个交互影响关系,其网络密度为0.17,网络直径为3,平均聚类系数和平均路径长度分别为0.2和1.8,呈现出明显的多重叠加性和小世界特征。②在亚洲、欧洲和非洲内部,“一带一路”沿线各城市之间的大气污染空间传导有97.2%以上的最短路径不超过2,在三大洲的城市之间,有96.8%以上的最短传导路径不超过2,显示出较强的网络连通性。③块模型分析表明,“一带一路”沿线大气污染空间交互影响网络可以分为双向溢出、净溢出、净接收、中间人四个板块,其中欧洲城市主要位于双向溢出板块,而亚洲和非洲城市则分散于四个板块之中,板块间的大气污染存在链式双向传导关系。基于上述研究结论,文章从开展科研联合攻关、设立“一带一路”大气污染治理基金、建立大气污染信息共享机制、推进绿色产业合作等四个方面就新时期如何深入开展“一带一路”大气污染合作治理提供了可行的对策建议。Analyzing the structural characteristics of the cross-border interactive influence network of air pollution is the basis for the global cooperative governance of air pollution.Based on the ground monitoring data of PM2.5concentration in 281 cities of 63 Belt and Road countries,this article uses the big data causal inference technology-transfer entropy method to identify the spatial interactive influence of air pollution from the perspective of information flow.The spatial interactive influence network of air pollution in cities along the Belt and Road was constructed,and its structural characteristics were revealed from the overall structure,block model,and other aspects.The results showed that:①At the 5%significance level,there were 13335 interactive influence relationships of air pollution in cities along the Belt and Road,the network density was 0.17,the network diameter was 3,and the average clustering coefficient and average path length were 0.2 and 1.8,respectively,showing obvious multiple superposition and small-world characteristics.②In Asia,Europe,and Africa,more than 97.2%of the shortest influence paths between cities along the Belt and Road were no more than 2,and between cities on three continents,more than 96.8%of the shortest influence paths were no more than 2,showing strong network connectivity.③The block model analysis showed that the spatial interactive influence network of air pollution along the Belt and Road could be divided into four blocks:two-way spillover,net spillover,net reception,and intermediary.European cities were mainly located in the two-way spillover block,while Asian and African cities were scattered in four blocks.There was a two-way influence relationship of air pollution among the four blocks.Based on the above research conclusions,this article provides actionable countermeasures on how to further carry out joint air pollution cooperation among the Belt and Road countries in the new era from four aspects:carrying out joint scientific research;setting up the Belt and Roa

关 键 词：“一带一路” 大气污染 转移熵 空间交互影响网络 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]