近代中国的民调主旨与问卷设计分析  

An Analysis of the Theme and Questionnaire Design of Public Opinion Polls in Modern China

作　　者：杨天宏[1] Yang Tianhong

机构地区：[1]四川大学历史文化学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《史学月刊》2022年第6期54-66,共13页Journal of Historical Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“近代中国的民意调查与民意(1912—1949)”(18AZS016)。

摘　　要：从1920年代开始,受西方兴起的社会学调查方法影响,各色各样的民调在中国出现。民调的品质取决于调查主旨的确定和问卷设计。统计显示,近代中国的民调涉及政治、外交、思想、文化及社会生活的各个方面,但政治始终是不变的主旨,这为从社会心理维度认识近代中国的政治及其变化提供了资讯。在问卷设计上,尽管因意趣各异,不同民调呈现出较大差别,但国外同行有关民调设计的技术讲究在近代中国民调中亦有体现,这在一定程度上铸就了民调结论的可信度。近代中国民调的技术缺陷主要表现为部分调查主旨不明,问卷题目杂乱无章。在方法论上,一些民调预设答案或违反对称性原则,或受政治影响,自觉不自觉使用诱导性语言,降低了民调的整体质量。Influenced by the emergence of sociological survey methods in Western countries,various kinds of public opinion polls had appeared in China from the 1920s.The quality of a public opinion poll depends on the definition of its main themes and the design of the questionnaire.Statistics show that polls in modern China cover all aspects of political,diplomatic,ideological,cultural and social issues,but political issues have always dominated the subjects of polls,which provides information for understanding the politics and its changes in modern China from the socio-psychological dimension.In terms of questionnaire design,although different polls show great differences due to the divergence of interests,the technical points of poll design of foreign counterparts are reflected in modern Chinese polls.This has,to a certain extent,ensured the credibility of the opinion poll findings.The technical defects of modern Chinese polls are mainly manifested in the obscurity of survey gist,and the disorder of questionnaire questions.As far as methodology is concerned,the pre-determined answers of some polls violate the principle of symmetry,and some polls are influenced by politics by using bait-and-switch language consciously or unconsciously,which reduces the overall quality of the polls.

关 键 词：近代中国 民调主旨 问卷设计 民调品质 

分 类 号：K26[历史地理—历史学]