2021年中国炼油工业发展状况与近期展望  

Review and outlook of China’s refining industry in 2021

作　　者：费华伟[1,2] 王婧 高振宇[1,2] FEI Huawei;WANG Jing;GAO Zhenyu(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecast)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油集团油气市场模拟与价格预测重点实验室

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2022年第4期48-54,62,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2021年,中国炼油能力持续较快增长,净增炼油能力2520万吨/年,总能力升至9.1亿吨/年,略高于“十三五”期间年均新增2350万吨/年的水平;炼油行业生产运行恢复良好,炼厂平均开工率为77.2%,创历史最好水平,“减油增化”取得实效;绿色低碳、数字化、智能化取得进展。预计2022年中国炼油能力将继续较快增长,总能力达到9.37亿吨/年,炼油结构不断优化;原油加工量为7.23亿吨,增速较2021年放缓,但外部环境及新冠肺炎疫情的不确定性将对炼油业平稳运行带来一定挑战。未来,中国炼油工业需继续淘汰落后产能、优化产业结构、推进科技创新、拥抱数字革命,实现做优做强和绿色低碳高质量发展。In 2021, China’s refining capacity continued to grow at a faster pace, with a net increase of 25.2 million tons per year, the total capacity to 910 million tons per year, and slightly higher than the average annual increase of 23.5 million tons per year during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The oil refining industry resumed production and operation well, with 77.2% average refinery operating rate, a record high. Reducing oil and increasing chemicals achieved results and the pace of green, low-carbon, digital and intelligent made progress. It is expected that China’s refining capacity will continue to grow rapidly in 2022, with a total capacity of 937 million tons per year, and refining structure will continue to be optimized. Crude oil processing volume is expected to reach 723 million tons, a slower growth rate than in 2021, but the external environment and the uncertainties of COVID-19 will pose challenges to the smooth operation of the refining industry. In the future, China’s oil refining industry should continue to phase out outdated production capacity, optimize industrial structure, promote scientific and technological innovation, embrace digital revolution, and achieve better and stronger green, low-carbon and high-quality development.

关 键 词：中国炼油工业 产能 开工率 结构调整 替代能源 减油增化 

分 类 号：F426.72[经济管理—产业经济]