从“试点”到“扩散”:低碳城市试点的包容性低碳增长效应分析  

From“pilot”to“diffusion”:analysis of inclusive low-carbon growth effect of low-carbon city pilot policy

作　　者：肖涵月 孙慧[1,2] 王慧[1,2] 辛龙[1,2] XIAO Hanyue;SUN Hui;WANG Hui;XIN Long(Center for Innovation Management Research of Xinjiang,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2022年第3期28-40,共13页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71963030);第三次新疆综合科学考察课题子课题5(SQ2021xjkk01800);新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目(21BJY050)。

摘　　要：基于共同的碳减排责任和区域差异化发展的现实问题,低碳城市试点政策是我国渐进式低碳转型策略中的一次重要尝试。将低碳城市试点政策视为一项准自然实验,基于2005—2017年中国160个地级市数据,从包容性视角出发,综合运用渐进式双重差分法以及β收敛模型检验了低碳城市试点政策在非试点城市的政策扩散效应及扩散机制,研究发现:(1)低碳城市试点政策在非试点城市形成了政策扩散效应,即促进了非试点城市包容性低碳增长;(2)低碳城市试点政策扩散效应的地理空间范围为试点城市周边250km内,其中在50km内政策扩散效应最显著,随着地理距离增加,政策扩散效应逐渐衰减;(3)基于政策扩散的学习机制与竞争机制,低碳城市试点政策通过提高非试点城市的环境规制强度、绿色技术创新水平以及工业生产规模促进了包容性低碳增长,但基于模仿机制的低碳生活方式的促进效应不明显;(4)试点城市带动能力、非试点城市发展阶段以及行政区划对低碳城市试点政策扩散效应具有异质性影响。研究结论对优化低碳政策设计,有序推动低碳经济转型具有一定的参考意义。In view of the common responsibilities for carbon emission reduction and the reality of differentiated development among regions,the low-carbon city pilot policy is an important attempt in China’s gradual low-carbon transformation.Based on the data of 160 cities in China from 2005 to 2017,this paper takes the pilot policy of low-carbon cities as a quasi-natural experiment,and uses the time-varying difference-in-differences method andβconvergence model to test the policy diffusion effect and mechanism of the low-carbon city pilot in the non-pilot areas.The research finds that:(1)The low-carbon city pilot has formed a policy diffusion effect on the non-pilot cities in promoting the inclusive low-carbon growth.(2)The effective spatial range of the policy diffusion effect is within 250 km around the pilot city,of which the policy diffusion effect is the strongest within 50 km,and decreases gradually with the increase of geographical distance.(3)Based on the learning mechanism and competition mechanism of policy diffusion,the low-carbon city pilot policy has driven inclusive low-carbon growth by improving the intensity of environmental regulation,the level of green technology innovation and the scale of industrial production in non-pilot cities,but the promotion effect of low-carbon lifestyle based on imitation mechanism is not obvious.(4)The driving capacity of pilot cities,the development stage of non-pilot cities and administrative divisions have heterogeneous impact on the policy diffusion effect.The conclusions of this paper can provide certain reference for optimizing low-carbon policies and orderly promoting the transformation of low-carbon economy.

关 键 词：低碳城市试点 政策扩散效应 政策扩散机制 包容性低碳增长 渐进双重差分法 Β收敛 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济] F062.9