大变局下全球中高端制造供应链重构趋势及我国对策  

Global Mid-to-High-end Manufacturing Supply Chain Restructuring and China’s Countermeasures

作　　者：杨长春[1] 张潇 何明珂[1,3] YANG Chang-chun;ZHANG Xiao;HE Ming-ke(School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing,100049,China;Institute of Technology and Economic and Social Development,China Academy of Science and Technology Development,Beijing,100038,China;School of Logistics,Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing,101149,China)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100049 [2]中国科学技术发展战略研究院科技与经济社会发展研究所,北京100038 [3]北京物资学院物流学院,北京101149

出　　处：《经济管理》2022年第5期5-23,共19页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“全球供应链重构及中国对策研究”(20AJY016)。

摘　　要：本文从全球贸易的宏观视角,重点探讨贸易摩擦和全球新冠肺炎疫情蔓延背景下,中美不同贸易政策对全球中高端制造供应链结构的影响。文章运用动态GTAP模型模拟了六种情境,以研究疫情和贸易摩擦冲击下,中美不同贸易政策对全球中高端制造业贸易规模和流向的影响,进而揭示冲击对全球中高端制造供应链格局变动趋势的影响。研究发现:中国通过加强区域经贸协作,能有效减缓疫情和贸易摩擦叠加效应对中国中高端制造供应链带来的负向影响;疫情和贸易摩擦背景下,中美采取不同的贸易政策将对中美深度参与的全球中高端制造供应链的结构与形态产生长期性的影响,加速全球中高端制造供应链重构,引致全球供应链未来将同时呈现区域化、扩散化和全球化的特征。从企业层面来看,现阶段全球供应链上的核心跨国企业尽快修复供应链的鲁棒性破裂是当前的工作重心,并在中长期内不断强化供应链敏捷性与韧性,全面提升供应链的发展弹性。从政府层面来看,在经济全球化推进受阻的形势下,中国应基于全球供应链战略,强化区域经贸协作,寻求新的区域供应链闭合,同时做好疫情防控和中美经贸关系调整在全球供应链上动态新平衡的中长期准备。As the world’s largest and second largest economies, Sino-US economic and trade relations are not only of great significance to China and the United States, but the spillover effects of bilateral trade policy adjustments will have a profound impact on other economies in the world.The Sino-US trade friction remains high and concentrated in the manufacturing industry.In recent years, the focus of the trade frictions have further centered on the mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry.At this stage, the dual uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic and Sino-US economic and trade relations are the biggest external risks exposed to multinational companies in terms of strategic decision on global supply chain layout.The global supply chain is an important carrier of international trade.The fundamental reason behind the changes in the scale and flow of global mid-to-high-end manufacturing trade is the adjustment of the global supply chain layout.Various uncertainties in global trade are diffused and transmitted to all links through the global supply chain.The bullwhip effect on the global supply chain has exacerbated the losses caused by the risk of global trade uncertainty.Any link in the global supply chain is affected, which may lead to a domino effect of upstream and downstream international trade activities.Shrinking global trade is an important measure of the extent of disruption to global supply chains.Thus, how to restructure the global supply chain to revive global economy under the dual impact of Sino-US trade frictions and the COVID-19 is one of the major issues that Chinese scholars need to think about and then propose effective solutions.Therefore, from the macro perspective of global trade, this paper focuses on the impact of different trade policies between China and the United States on the structure of the global mid-to-high-end manufacturing supply chain under the background of Sino-US trade frictions and the Covid-19.This paper uses the dynamic GTAP model to simulate six scenarios to explore the impact o

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 新冠疫情 全球贸易 中高端制造业 全球供应链重构 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]