多情景模拟下我国制造业能源消费结构与碳达峰预测研究  

Energy Consumption Structure and Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions Prediction of China’s Manufacturing under Multi-Scenario Simulation

作　　者：胡剑波[1] 罗志鹏 Hu Jianbo;Luo Zhipeng

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《江西社会科学》2022年第4期50-60,207,共12页Jiangxi Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国产业部门碳生产率的演变特征与优化对策研究”(20BJL037)。

摘　　要：“促达峰”和“稳比重”是制造业未来较长时期内的重要任务,在确保满足合理用能需求的条件下,制造业未来会呈现怎样的碳排放趋势?基于2001—2019年制造业分行业能源消费数据以及全国层面的能源结构数据,采用LSTM神经网络模型和情景分析方法,对制造业进行碳达峰路径模拟与峰值预测,主要结论为:其一,LSTM神经网络模型的预测结果显示,制造业整体的能源消费在2030年前没有出现峰值,但减速增长的迹象明显,共15个细分行业能够在2030年前实现能源消费达峰;其二,当制造业仅依赖外部减碳条件时,不寻求内部技术改进或变革,即在基准情景下,制造业整体碳排放在2029年达到峰值,碳排放峰值为748265.13万吨;其三,当制造业同时满足内部和外部减碳条件时,政策情景下制造业整体碳排放峰值出现在2029年,峰值为730520.02万吨,而强化政策情景下制造业整体碳排放峰值提前到2028年,且峰值碳排放量下降为724280.63万吨。“Promoting carbon dioxide emissions to peak” and “stabilizing the proportion” are important tasks for the manufacturing in a long period of time in the future. What kind of carbon dioxide emission trend will the manufacturing industry show in the future under the condition of ensuring to meet the reasonable energy demand? Based on the energy consumption data of manufacturing from 2001 to2019 and the energy structure data at the national level, the carbon dioxide emissions trend simulation and peak prediction of manufacturing are carried out by using LSTM neural network model and scenario analysis method. The main conclusions are as follows:(1)the prediction results of LSTM neural network model show that the overall energy consumption of manufacturing does not reach the peak before 2030, but the signs of deceleration growth are obvious, A total of 15 sub-sectors can achieve peak energy consumption by 2030.(2)When the manufacturing only depends on external carbon reduction conditions, it does not seek internal technological improvement or change, that is, under the benchmark scenario, the overall carbon dioxide emission of the manufacturing will reach the peak in 2029,and the peak carbon dioxide emission will be 7482.6513 million tons;(3)When the manufacturing meets the internal and external carbon reduction conditions at the same time, the overall carbon dioxide emission peak of the manufacturing under the policy scenario appears in 2029, with a peak of7305.2020 million tons. Under the enhanced policy scenario, the overall carbon dioxide emission peak of the manufacturing is advanced to 2028, and the peak carbon dioxide emission decreases to7242.8063 million tons.

关 键 词：碳达峰预测 制造业 能源结构 多情景模拟 LSTM神经网络模型 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]