Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City,China:A modelling study  

作　　者：Jie-feng Huang Ze-yu Zhao Wen-kui Lu Jia Rui Bin Deng Wei-kang Liu Tian-long Yang Zhuo-yang Li Pei-hua Li Chan Liu Li Luo Bin Zhao Yi-fang Wang Qun Li Ming-zhai Wang Tianmu Chen 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics,School of Public Health,Xiamen University,Xiamen City,Fujian Province,China [2]Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xiamen City,Fujian Province,China [3]Xiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University,Xiamen City,Fujian Province,China [4]Public Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Changping District,Beijing City,China

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2022年第2期127-137,共11页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：supported by the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation(Grant INV-005834 to T.C.).

摘　　要：Objective:Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease,always occurring in winter and spring.In this study,we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics,transmissibility,and its correlation with meteorological variables.Method:A seasonal Susceptiblee Exposede Infectious/Asymptomatice Recovered model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number(Rt).Results:The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December.There was high transmission at the median of Rt¼1.091(ranged:0 to 4.393).Rt was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November.Correlations were found between temperature(Pearson correlation coefficient[r]ranged:from 0.101 to 0.115),average relative humidity(r¼0.070),average local pressure(r¼-0.066),and the number of new cases.In addition,average local pressure(r¼0.188),average wind speed(r¼0.111),air temperature(r ranged:-0.128 to-0.150),average relative humidity(r¼-0.203)and sunshine duration(r¼-0.075)were all correlated with Rt.Conclusion:A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City,leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps.Meteorological factors,especially air temperature and relative humidity,may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors.

关 键 词：MUMPS TRANSMISSIBILITY Meteorological factors CORRELATION Time-dependent reproduction number 

分 类 号：R512.1[医药卫生—内科学]