Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data  

作　　者：Shi Zhao Peihua Cao Daozhou Gao Zian Zhuang Weiming Wang Jinjun Ran Kai Wang Lin Yang Mohammad R.Einollahi Yijun Lou Daihai He Maggie H.Wang 

机构地区：[1]JC School of Public Health and Primary Care,Chinese University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,China [2]Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong,Shenzhen,China [3]Clinical Research Centre,Zhujiang Hospital,Southern Medical University,Guangzhou,Guangdong,China [4]Department of Mathematics,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai,China [5]Department of Applied Mathematics,Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hong Kong,China [6]School of Mathematics and Statistics,Huaiyin Normal University,Huaian,China [7]School of Public Health,Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine,University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,China [8]Department of Medical Engineering and Technology,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,China [9]School of Nursing,Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hong Kong,China [10]School of Computer Engineering,Iran University of Science and Technology,Tehran,Iran

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2022年第2期189-195,共7页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：supported by General Research Fund(Grant Number 15205119);the Research Grants Council(RGC)of Hong Kong,China and an Alibaba-Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project;supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Number 61672013);Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention(Grant Number HAP201704),Huaian,Jiangsu,China.

摘　　要：The novel coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak on the Diamond Princess(DP)ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20,2020.We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process,and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9(95%CrI:1.7e7.7).The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days,and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial.We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34%after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5.According to the model simulation,relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size,postpone the timing of epidemic peak,and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare.The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.

关 键 词：COVID-19 Reproduction number TRANSMISSION Diamond princess ship 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]