基于空间分析的东盟风电成本评估方法研究  

Research on ASEAN Wind Power Cost Evaluation Method Based on Spatial Analysis

作　　者：夏婷 姜昊[1] 仇欣 俞定坤 郁永静 XIA Ting;JIANG Hao;QIU Xin;YU Dingkun;YU Yongjing(China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute,Beijing 100120,China;PowerChina Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited,Chengdu 610072,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]水电水利规划设计总院,北京100120 [2]中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司,四川成都610072

出　　处：《水力发电》2022年第7期79-83,102,共6页Water Power

基　　金：国家能源局委托课题资助项目(ZSGN-KT2109-008)。

摘　　要：针对项目层面的风电平准化度电成本(LCOE)评估无法反应区域分布情况的问题,以东盟区域为例,研究了基于空间分析的风电成本评估方法。结果表明,东盟国家风电技术可开发总量达到1 112.3 GW,其中93%的技术可开发量位于低风速(5~7 m/s)区域。在技术可开发区域内,东盟国家风电LCOE为0.05~0.094美元/(kW·h),高于全球平均水平。项目建设成本和融资成本对LCOE的变化起到重要的作用,同时具备一定下降空间,可作为东盟风电成本下降的主要努力方向。结合遥感数据和点尺度项目数据的空间分析方法可有效评估区域风电项目开发成果的分布情况,为区域风电基地规划和项目优选提供有益参考。Levelized cost of energy(LCOE) of wind power project evaluation on the project level cannot reflect the regional distribution. In order to solve this problem, taking ASEAN as an example, the LCOE of wind power based on spatial analysis method is evaluated. The results show that technically exploitable capacity of wind power in ASEAN countries reaches 1 112.3 GW, of which 93% is located in the area of low wind speed(5-7 m/s). In the technically exploitable region, the LCOE of wind power is 0.05-0.094 USD/(kW·h), higher than the global average level. The project construction cost and financing cost play an important role in the reduction of LCOE. At the same time, they have some room for decline, which can be used as the main direction of reducing the cost of wind power in ASEAN. The spatial analysis method combined with remote sensing data and point-scale project data can effectively evaluate the distribution of wind power cost at regional scale, and provide a useful reference for regional wind power base planning and project optimal location selection.

关 键 词：风电成本 平准化度电成本 东盟 评估方法 空间分析 技术可开发量 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]