基于CMS模型的中国辛辣蔬菜出口贸易特征及波动成因分析  

Characteristics and Causes of Fluctuations of China's Spicy Vegetable Export Trade Based on CMS Model

作　　者：宋扬 郭秀琪 李如霞 刘妍[1] Song Yang;Guo Xiuqi;Li Ruxia;Liu Yan(College of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071001,Hebei)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北保定071001

出　　处：《农业展望》2022年第3期117-123,共7页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：国家特色蔬菜产业技术体系建设专项资助项目(CARS-24-F-01);河北现代农业产业体系蔬菜产业经济岗资助项目(HBCT2018030301);河北省统计科学研究计划项目(2021HY05);河北省高校基本科研业务费社会科学类资助项目(KY202020)。

摘　　要：运用2010—2020年中国辛辣蔬菜出口贸易数据,利用CMS模型对中国辛辣蔬菜出口贸易波动特征及成因进行分析,发现中国辛辣蔬菜出口贸易整体上呈现出波动上涨的趋势,出口产品以洋葱、辣椒、大蒜为主,出口市场主要集中在美国、日本、俄罗斯以及东南亚地区;结构效应、竞争效应对中国辛辣蔬菜出口增长的影响较为显著,市场需求是影响出口的重要因素。基于此,结合中国的实际国情以及具体的管理体系,提出了从提高品质、品牌效应、经营能力、行业监管等方面促进中国辛辣蔬菜出口的建议。Using the data of China's spicy vegetable export trade from 2010 to 2020,the fluctuation characteristics and causes of China's spicy vegetable export trade were analyzed by using CMS model.It was found that China's spicy vegetable export trade shows a fluctuating upward trend on the whole,the export products are mainly onions,peppers and garlic,and the export markets are mainly concentrated in the United States,Japan,Russia and Southeast Asia.The structure effect and competition effect have a significant impact on the export growth of Chinese spicy vegetables,and the market demand is an important factor affecting the export.Based on this,combined with China's actual national conditions and specific management system,suggestions on promoting the export of Chinese spicy vegetables were put forward from improving quality,brand effect,management ability and industry supervision and so on.

关 键 词：辛辣蔬菜 出口贸易 贸易波动 CMS模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62