中国用水量变化的驱动效应  

Driving effect evolution and spatial differentiation of water use change in China

作　　者：何凡[1] 顾冰 何国华[1] 路培艺 尹婧[1] 赵勇[1] 李海红[1] HE Fan;GU Bing;HE Guohua;LU Peiyi;YIN Jing;ZHAO Yong;LI Haihong(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2022年第3期417-428,共12页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204);国家杰出青年科学基金项目(52025093);国家自然科学基金项目(52061125101,52109042)。

摘　　要：为识别和量化导致用水量变化的主要影响因素及其驱动作用,准确把握用水变化趋势,将全国总用水量分为生活、工业和农业用水量,通过构建多层次对数均值迪氏指数(logarithmic mean Divisia index,LMDI)分解模型,在生活、工业及农业用水量变化的驱动因素分解的基础上,对全国总用水量驱动效应进行测度,并进一步量化研究用水驱动效应在时间和空间尺度上的分异特征。结果表明:2020年用水总量几乎与20年前持平,但各驱动要素的相对作用发生了显著变化,与此同时,用水量变化驱动效应存在较强的空间分异性,并且在“十三五”时期表现出了新的变化态势。结果可为我国水资源的高效利用和水资源管理政策的科学制定提供技术支撑与决策依据。Accurately studying and judging changes in national and regional water consumption is prerequisite for rational layout of major water conservancy projects and scientific formulation of water resources management policies.The identification and quantification of the main influencing factors and their driving effects that lead to changes in water consumption is an important basis for accurately grasping the trend of changes in water consumption.At the current stage when the contradiction between water supply and demand is prominent and the economic and social development is undergoing a comprehensive transformation,in-depth research on the main factors affecting water consumption,temporal and spatial changes,and their internal mechanism is undoubtedly of important practical significance and has also received extensive attention from academic circles.The current methods for quantitatively measuring the driving effect of water consumption changes mainly include structural decomposition analysis(SDA)and index decomposition analysis(IDA).However,whether it is the structural decomposition method or the index decomposition method,the existing results are generally based on the total water consumption as a whole to conduct research or only analyze the water consumption of specific industries in specific regions.The study of total water consumption as a whole ignores the differences in the driving forces of water consumption in different industries of life,industry,and agriculture to a certain extent.Research on water consumption of specific industries in specific regions can not fully reflect the evolution of country’s water use process.Considering that the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)in the index decomposition method effectively solves the problem of residual items and zero values in the index decomposition,it is not affected by the input-output table.For the impact of a long release cycle,this study uses the Kaya identity optimization to construct a multi-level LMDI method.Based on the overall analysis of the

关 键 词：用水量 驱动效应 空间分异 指数分解 LMDI 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]