新一轮最低收购价政策调整对稻谷生产的影响研究——基于广义合成控制法的分析  

The impacts of the new round of minimum purchase price policy adjustment on rice production:Analysis based on the generalized synthetic control method

作　　者：李琼华 张琳[1] 钟钰[1] LI Qiong-hua;ZHANG Lin;ZHONG Yu(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2022年第3期369-378,共10页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA056);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(10-IAED-01-2022);中国农业科学院2022年基本科研业务费院级重点任务(Y2022ZK04)

摘　　要：在当前世界百年未有之大变局和中华民族伟大复兴战略全局两个“大局”下,国内粮食支持保护政策面临新的要求和挑战。自2015年国家开启新一轮最低收购价政策改革以来,政策连续调整对我国稻谷生产及粮食安全带来的影响值得关注。本文聚焦新发展阶段最低收购价政策调整的背景,基于2004—2019年全国省级面板数据,采用广义合成控制法,分析新一轮政策调整对稻谷播种面积、单产及产量影响的作用机理与政策效应。研究结果表明:新一轮政策调整对稻谷播种面积有显著的负向影响,且政策作用效果具有明显的区域异质性,对稻谷产量波动产生一定的风险。进一步分析发现,在最低收购价格不再连续上调的压力下,稻谷播种面积出现明显调减,产量增加主要依赖于单产提升。因此,需关注本轮政策调整的影响及风险,在保持国内最低收购价政策基本框架稳定的前提下,坚持循序渐进主原则和市场调节主方向,进一步推动政策改革深化,同时完善配套支持政策,加强生物育种和科技创新,牢牢守住国家粮食安全的底线。Under the two situations of the global unprecedented changes in a century and the overall strategy of the great rejuvenation of China,the domestic grain support and protection policy is facing new requirements and challenges.Since the country started a new round of minimum purchase price policy reform in 2015,the impacts of continuous policy adjustment on rice production and grain security deserve attention.Based on the national and provincial panel data from 2004 to 2019 and applying the generalized synthetic control method,this paper analyzed the mechanism and the impacts of the new round of minimum purchase price policy adjustment on acreage,per unit yield and total production of rice.Results show that the new round of policy adjustment has a significant negative impact on the sown area of rice with obvious regional heterogeneity,which brings the fluctuation of rice yield.Further analysis found that under the pressure that the minimum purchase price is no longer continuously raised,the sown area of paddy rice has been significantly reduced,and the increase in output mainly depends on the advance in yield per unit.Therefore,this paper provides the following suggestions:paying attention to the impacts and risks of this round policy adjustment,maintaining the stability of the basic framework of the domestic minimum purchase price policy,adhering to the main principle of stepby-step and the direction of market adjustment,further deepening policy reform,improving supporting policies,and strengthening biological breeding and technological innovation to firmly hold the bottom line of national grain security.

关 键 词：最低收购价政策 粮食安全 稻谷生产 广义合成控制法 效应评估 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]