气候变化背景下未来西藏粮食供需平衡状况预测  

The Impact of Climate Change on Grain Supply and DemandBalance in Tibet in the Future

作　　者：丁锐 史文娇[1,2] 吕昌河 卢宏玮[1,2] 邓祥征 邵景安 崔佳莹[4] Ding Rui;Shi Wenjiao;Lyu Changhe;Lu Hongwei;Deng Xiangzheng;Shao Jing’an;Cui Jiaying(Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Geography and Tourism,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Hebei Normal University,Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction,Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Remote Sensing Identification of Environmental Change,Shijiazhuang 050024,Hebei,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049 [3]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆401331 [4]河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院/河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室/河北省环境变化遥感识别技术创新中心,河北石家庄050024

出　　处：《地理科学》2022年第5期772-781,共10页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20040301,XDA20010202,XDA23100202);中国科学院青年创新促进会会员人才专项(2018071);重庆市基础科学与前沿技术研究专项(cstc2017jcyjBX0024);重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项(cstc2019jscx-gksBX0060);2018年院士牵头科技创新引导专项资助。

摘　　要：基于组合预测法、生产函数和笔者前期关于气候变化对西藏粮食产量定量影响的工作,对考虑气候变化影响的未来西藏县(区)级尺度粮食供需平衡状况进行预测。结果表明:①西藏粮食产量较高的区域集中在一江两河等河谷地带,西藏粮食需求量较大的地区主要在人口较多的县市,未来肉类消费增加将会消耗更多的饲料用粮。②西藏粮食供需平衡状况南北分异明显,南部河谷地区相对较好,北部羌塘高原较差。③当前西藏不能实现考虑口粮、饲料粮、工业用粮、种子用粮和损耗5种需求总和的粮食供需平衡,全区自给率为70.58%,2030年和2050年分别下降至62.59%和53.55%。虽然西藏总需求不能完全自给,但仍能保障口粮自给。④气候变化整体上对自给率为正面影响。到2030年和2050年,气候变化将使自治区粮食自给状况提升2.45%和2.09%。研究有助于掌握未来西藏粮食安全状况,规划农业布局,以期保障边疆粮食安全、促进高原农业可持续发展。Based on the combining forecasts,production function and the author’s previous work,this article evaluated the future grain supply and demand balance of Tibet at the county scale after considering the impact of climate change.The results show that:1)The areas with high grain production in Tibet will be concentrated in the Yarlung Zangbo River,Nyangqu River and Lhasa River Region and other river valley areas.The areas with high grain demand will be mainly in counties and cities with larger populations.Increasing meat consumption in the future will consume more feed grain.2)The grain supply and demand balance in Tibet will have obvious geographic differences between the north and the south.It will be relatively satisfying in the south,but will be relatively terrible in the north.3)At current status,the gain self-sufficiency ratio of Tibet is 70.58%,failing to achieve an overall balance between grain supply and demand,and it will be 62.59%and 53.55%in 2030 and 2050.Although the total grain demand cannot be completely met in the future,it can still guarantee staple grain self-sufficiency.4)Climate change will have a positive impact on the grain self-sufficiency.It is estimated that in 2030 and 2050,climate change will increase the self-sufficiency ratio by 2.45%and 2.09%in Tibet.This study can help clarify future food security status and develop the agricultural layout in Tibet,thus ensuring food security in this border area and promoting sustainable development of the plateau agriculture.

关 键 词：自给率 耗粮系数 口粮 饲料粮 粮食需求 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]