基于气象因子的吉林市区3种早春植物花期预测  

Prediction of Flowering Period of Early-spring Herbs in Jilin City Based on Meteorological Factors

作　　者：高博 韩喜越 唐抒圆[1] GAO Bo;HAN Xiyue;TANG Shuyuan(Forestry College of Beihua University,Jilin 132013,China)

机构地区：[1]北华大学林学院,吉林吉林132013

出　　处：《北华大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第3期311-314,共4页Journal of Beihua University（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31971669);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(120719032).

摘　　要：以吉林市区常见的3种早春植物为对象,依托多年物候期和气象实地观测数据,分析气象因子对物候期的影响,建立花期预测模型.研究表明:连翘(Forsythia suspensa)、京桃(Amygdalus persica f.rubro-plena)和山梨(Pyrus ussuriensis maxim)的平均花期分别为(22.6±2.19)d、(14.4±2.51)d和(16.2±4.76)d.3种早春植物花期长度与光照时间呈极显著正相关,与最低平均气温呈极显著负相关.回归分析发现,以0℃积温为预测因子的花期预测模型y=6.796+0.047x+0.002x^(2)-7.306×10^(-6)x^(3)拟合度较高.In order to analyze the response of meteorological factors on phenological periods and establish the prediction models of flowering period based on the multi-year observation data of phenology and meteorology,the three common early-spring herbs in Jilin were studied.The results showed that the average flowering duration of Forsythia suspensa,Amygdalus persica f.rubro-plena and Pyrus ussuriensis maxim were(22.6±2.19)d,(14.4±2.51)d and(16.2±4.76)d.There was a significant positive correlation between flowering duration and illumination hours,and a significant negative correlation between flowering duration and minimum mean temperature.The prediction model of flowering period had a high fitting degree y=6.796+0.047x+0.002x^(2)-7.306×10^(-6)x^(3)(x for the 0℃ accumulated temperature).

关 键 词：吉林市区 早春植物 物候期 气象因子 花期预报 

分 类 号：S685.99[农业科学—观赏园艺]