系统动力学与水质模型耦合分析区域经济发展与河网水质改善的关系  

Relationship between Regional Economic Development and River Network Water Quality Improvement by Coupling Analysis with Systematic Dynamics and Water Quality Model

作　　者：石家旭 黄源生 张浩 樊力纲 何义亮[2] SHI Jiaxu;HUANG Yuansheng;ZHANG Hao;FAN Ligang;HE Yiliang(China-UK Low Carbon College,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai200240,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai200240,China;Rural Work Bureau of Changzhou Economic Development Zone,Changzhou213000,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学中英国际低碳学院,上海200240 [2]上海交通大学环境科学与工程学院,上海200240 [3]常州市经济开发区农村工作局,江苏常州213000

出　　处：《净水技术》2022年第6期125-133,共9页Water Purification Technology

基　　金：“水体污染控制与治理”国家重大科技专项(2017ZX07202001)。

摘　　要：工业区域在经济发展的同时会对周边水环境带来大量的污染,水环境污染来源分析是一个包含社会、经济、水环境的复杂的系统问题,而系统动力学模型具有多回路、非线性等特点,可以克服当前研究缺乏全局性和线性单向建模的问题。以工业聚集区——常州市经济开发区为例,构建系统动力学模型,考虑不同发展规划和污染防控措施设计4种发展情景,模拟预测未来不同污染物的排放量,并结合一维水质模型计算出口断面的COD_(Mn)、氨氮、TN、TP浓度变化。结果表明,在经济平稳发展加高强度污染控制方案下,各项污染物排放量在2030年均为最低,COD排放量为442 t、氨氮排放量为57 t、TN排放量为287 t、TP排放量为9 t。经过拟合后COD_(Mn)、氨氮、TN、TP浓度曲线分别在2022年、2023年、2024年、2022年达到“水质改善拐点”。据此提出区域内改善水环境质量相关措施建议。Industrial areas can bring a lot of pollution to the surrounding water environment as the economy develops.The source analysis of water pollution is a complex system problem which includes society,economy and water environment.The system dynamics model has multiple loops and nonlinear,etc.The characteristics can overcome the lack of global and linear unidirectional modeling in current research.Changzhou Economic Development Zone was taken as an example to build a system dynamics model.Considering different development plans and pollution prevention and control measures,four development scenarios were designed to simulate and predict the future emissions of different pollutants.Combined with one-dimensional water quality model,the concentration changes of COD_(Mn),ammonia nitrogen,TN and TP at the export section were calculated.Results showed that under the scheme of stable economic development and high intensity pollution control,the emissions of various pollutants would be the lowest in 2030,with COD discharge of 442 t,ammonia nitrogen discharge of 57 t,TN discharge of 287 t and TP discharge of 9 t.After fitting,the concentration curves of COD_(Mn),ammonia nitrogen,TN and TP reach"water quality improvement point"in 2022,2023,2024 and 2022,respectively.Based on this,suggestions on measures to improve the water environment quality in the region were proposed.

关 键 词：系统动力学 工业聚集区 水环境质量 水质改善 经济发展 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]