中国援助对南太平洋岛国经济的影响——基于协整检验、VEC模型及脉冲响应函数的分析  

Impact of China's Aid on the Economy of South Pacific Island Countries--Based on Cointegration Test and VEC Model

作　　者：石巧玲 薛发彪[2] 陈钦 庄佩芬[3,4] SHI Qiaoling;XUE Fabiao;CHEN Qin;ZHUANG Pei fen(School of Finance and Economic,Fuzhou Industrial and Commercial College,Fuzhou,Fujian 350715,China;Fuzhou Free Trade Port Comprehensive Service Center,Fuzhou,Fujian 350015,China;Research Center for South Pacific Island Countries,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China;Economics College,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福州工商学院财经学院,福建福州350715 [2]福州保税港区综合服务中心,福建福州350015 [3]福建农林大学南太平洋岛国研究中心,福建福州350002 [4]福建农林大学经济管理学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《武夷学院学报》2022年第6期45-52,共8页Journal of Wuyi University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(72073029);农业农村部对外经济合作中心南太区域国别信息资料收集年度课题项目(K42218F01A);福建省本科高校重大教育教学改革研究项目(FBJG20190172)。

摘　　要：从中国援助南太平洋地区的历史、特点及国际评价等三方面剖析中国对南太平洋地区国家的援助情况。以巴布亚新几内亚为例,利用协整检验、VEC模型及脉冲响应函数等方法,实证分析中国援助对巴布亚新几内亚经济增长的影响。通过Johansen协整检验发现:中国援助与巴布亚新几内亚经济增长之间存在长期正向的均衡关系;通过VEC模型分析发现,中国援助的短期波动对巴布亚新几内亚经济增长会产生短期变化;基于VEC模型的脉冲响应分析发现,随着时间的推移,中国援助对巴布亚新几内亚经济增长的正向影响效应越来越大。中国对南太平洋岛国的援助兼顾经济增长的长期和短期效应,进一步证实中国援助对促进南太平洋岛国经济增长具有积极作用,对中国今后继续援助南太平洋岛国提供实证参考依据。This paper analyzes the general situation of China's assistance to countries in the South Pacific region from three aspects:the history,characteristics and international evaluation of China's assistance to the South Pacific region.Then,taking Papua New Guinea as an example,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of Chinese aid on Papua New Guinea's economic growth by using cointegration test,VEC model and impulse response function.Firstly,through Johansen cointegration test,it is found that there is a long-term positive equilibrium relationship between China's aid and Papua New Guinea's economic growth;Secondly,through the analysis of VEC model,it is found that the short-term fluctuation of Chinese aid will have a short-term change on the economic growth of Papua New Guinea;Finally,the impulse response analysis based on VEC model shows that with the passage of time,the positive impact of China's aid on Papua New Guinea's economic growth is increasing.China's assistance to South Pacific island countries takes into account the long-term and short-term effects of economic growth,which further confirms that China's assistance plays a positive role in promoting the economic growth of South Pacific island countries,and provides an empirical reference basis for China's continued assistance to South Pacific island countries in the future.

关 键 词：中国对外援助 经济影响 协整检验 VEC模型 脉冲响应函数 南太平洋岛国 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]