转移支付政策与农村居民消费:基于社会核算矩阵的模拟分析  

Transfer Payment Policy and Rural Household Consumption:A Simulation Analysis Based on Social Accounting Matrix

作　　者：袁小慧 郭李为 范金 YUAN Xiao-hui;GUO Li-wei;FAN Jin(Economic Development Quality Research Center Base,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,Jiangsu,China;Economics Teaching and Research Department,Jiangsu Administration College,Nanjing 210009,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济发展质量研究中心基地,江苏南京210037 [2]江苏行政学院经济学教研部,江苏南京210009

出　　处：《消费经济》2022年第2期86-96,共11页Consumer Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD081);江苏省软科学研究计划项目(BR2019075);南京市软科学研究计划重点项目(201901021)。

摘　　要：扩大农村居民消费不仅是新发展格局下扩大内需战略基点的实施重点,而且是我国实现社会主义现代化国家建设目标中政府迫切解决的一个实际问题。文章从“重视弱者”的角度探讨政府转移支付政策对农村居民消费的影响,并利用中国农村居民消费社会核算矩阵进行政策模拟,分析政策冲击的影响效应和传导路径。研究发现:(1)“重视弱者”的转移支付政策有利于农村居民消费的总体提升;(2)其对农村居民食品、居住、教育、交通通信等消费的影响较大,而对医疗保健消费的影响较小;(3)从政策冲击的传导路径看,其对家庭设备及用品、居住、文教娱乐、医疗保健消费的影响主要依赖于点对点的直接路径传导,而对食品、衣着和交通通信消费的影响则存在着多样化的传导路径;(4)其沿着直接路径的传导速度和效果更为明显。基于此,文章从突出政策实施的精准性和有效性等实践层面出发,为新发展格局下扩大农村居民消费提供政策建议。Expanding rural residents'consumption is not only the focus of the implementation of the strategic basis point of expanding domestic demand under the new development pattern,but also a practical problem urgently solved by the government in realizing the goal of building a socialist modern country.So based on the construction of China's rural residents'consumption social accounting matrix,and as for the principle of"paying attention to the weak",this paper simulates the corresponding transfer payment policy,explores the influence effect and transmission mechanism of relevant policies,and provides countermeasures and suggestions for expanding rural residents'consumption under the new development pattern.The results show that:Firstly,the transfer payment policy of"attaching importance to the weak"is conducive to the overall improvement of rural residents'consumption.Secondly,it has a greater impact on the consumption of food,housing,education,transportation and communication of rural residents.Relatively speaking,the consumption of medical care is less affected by the policy.Thirdly,from the transmission path of policy impact,its impact on household equipment and supplies,housing,culture,education,entertainment and medical care consumption mainly depends on the point-to-point direct path transmission,while its impact on food,clothing and transportation and communication consumption has diversified transmission paths.Fourthly,Its conduction speed and effect along the direct path are more obvious.Based on this,the research provides policy suggestions for expanding rural residents'consumption under the new development pattern from the practical aspects of highlighting the accuracy and effectiveness of policy implementation.

关 键 词：农村居民消费 社会核算矩阵 转移支付政策 情景模拟 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]