不同生长阶段降水对夏玉米产出的影响  

Impact of Precipitation at Different Growth Stages on Summer Maize Yield

作　　者：陈文婷[1] 周曙东[1] CHEN Wen-ting;ZHOU Shu-dong(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第4期91-103,共13页Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD160)。

摘　　要：基于1993—2020年河南夏玉米主产区的平衡面板数据,运用FGLS估计法分析气候变化背景下夏玉米不同生长阶段降水对其产出的因果估计。研究表明:以生育期整期为尺度的平均意义上的估计结果与分生长阶段的估计结果存在显著差异,降水对夏玉米单产“先增后减”的非线性关系主要体现在抽穗期,存在最优拐点;苗期、抽穗期、灌浆期干旱会显著降低夏玉米单产;灌溉缓解了降水不足与不均对夏玉米单产带来的不利影响;夏玉米抽穗期适当升温有助于单产的增加,但拔节期、抽穗期、灌浆期高温会显著降低单产。Based on the balanced panel data of main summer maize producing areas in Henan province from 1993 to 2020,this study uses FGLS model to analyze the impact of precipitation at different growth stages on summer maize yield under climate change.The results show that the estimations measured by the whole summer maize’s growth period are significantly different from those measured by different growth stages.There are significant nonlinear and inverted U-shaped relationships between summer maize yield and precipitation at heading stage with optimal points.Drought reduces the summer maize yield at seeding,heading,and filling stage,but irrigation alleviates the adverse effects of insufficient and uneven precipitation on the summer maize yield.Besides,proper increase in temperature at heading stage benefits the increase of summer maize yield,but high temperature significantly reduces the summer maize yield at elongation,heading and filling stages.

关 键 词：气候变化 降水 夏玉米 粮食生产 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]