全球价值链与贸易的福利效应:基于量化贸易模型的研究  

Global Value Chains and the Welfare Effect of Trade Liberalisation:Analysis Based on a Quantitative Trade Model

作　　者：段玉婉[1] 陆毅[2] 蔡龙飞 Duan Yuwan;Lu Yi;Cai Longfei

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,北京市100084

出　　处：《世界经济》2022年第6期3-31,共29页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金重点项目(21JJA004)的资助支持。

摘　　要：本文结合量化贸易模型和国际投入产出模型,拓展出一个能区分中间品贸易和最终品贸易,反映行业间投入产出关系异质性,囊括全球价值链特征的多国家多行业一般均衡模型,同时基于该模型,量化分析了中国加入世界贸易组织以及中美贸易摩擦对中国及世界主要地区福利和产业结构升级的影响。研究结果表明,加入世界贸易组织有效提高了中国的福利水平,促进产业结构升级,也提升了其他大多数地区的福利。该提升主要来自中间品贸易自由化,而最终品关税下降的福利效应有限。如果采用不区分中间品贸易和最终品贸易的传统模型,中国的福利将被低估约35%。中美贸易摩擦会使中美两国福利受损,但将促进中国的价值链攀升。This paper combines quantitative trade model with international Input-output model, building a multi-regional and multi-sectoral general equilibrium model that distinguishes between trade in intermediate goods and trade in final goods. The model reflects the heterogeneity of the input-output relationship between industries and fully captures the characteristics of global value chains. Based on this model, the study quantitatively analyses the impact of China’s tariff changes, due to its accession to the World Trade Organisation(WTO) and the Sino-US trade frictions, on the welfare and industrial structure upgrading of China and the main regions of the world. The findings of the study reveal that China’s accession to the WTO has effectively improved China’s level of welfare, promoted the upgrading of the industrial structure, and improved the welfare of most other regions. This effect is mainly due to the reduction of tariffs on intermediate goods. However, if the traditional quantitative trade model without distinguishing the trade in intermediate goods is used, China’s welfare gains from its accession to the WTO would be underestimated by almost 35%.Sino-US trade conflict would ruin both countries’ welfare, but would help China to climb the gobal value chain.

关 键 词：一般均衡模型 全球生产网络 中间品贸易 产业升级 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F742[经济管理—世界经济] F752.7F124