官员任期、产业结构趋同与经济增长  

Tenure of Official, Convergence of Industrial Structure and Economic Growth

作　　者：宣烨[1] 吴乐文 Xuan Ye;Wu Lewen(School of International Economic and Trade,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Industry Development Research Institute,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学国际经贸学院,江苏南京210023 [2]南京财经大学江苏产业发展研究院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2022年第2期36-58,共23页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“层级分工、空间集聚与生产性服务业高质量发展研究”(19YJC790164);江苏省“333工程”科研项目“新时代江苏生产性服务业高质量发展的动力机制与实现路径研究”(BRA2019066)的联合资助。

摘　　要：近年来,随着供给侧改革政策的稳步推进,中国经济正在逐步转型升级。与此同时,部分区域仍存在产业结构趋同现象。本文构建了“官员任期—产业结构—经济增长”的分析框架,基于长三角、京津冀和粤港澳大湾区城市群中48个城市及其制造业中29个细分行业的数据,系统考察了官员任期、产业结构趋同与经济增长的关系,研究发现:(1)城市的产业结构趋同程度在市长任期上呈现先降低后升高的变化趋势;(2)在以经济增长率为指标的晋升机制下,官员会通过提高地方产业结构趋同程度来拉动地方经济增长,尤其体现在高利税的资本技术密集型产业上;(3)中国的官员选拔晋升机制与实际的产业结构变动机制存在时间上的“错位”,进而促使产业结构趋同程度能够在一定的阈值内与经济增长存在正向变动关系。本文丰富并拓展了有关区域产业结构的研究,为加快转变政府职能、推进供给侧结构性改革、优化区域产业结构提供了经验证据。In recent years,with the steady progress of supply side reform policy,China’s economy is gradually transforming and upgrading.Meanwhile,industrial structure convergence still exists in some regions,this paper constructs an analytical framework of“official tenure—industrial structure—economic growth”.Based on the data of 48 cities in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and 29 sub industries in their manufacturing industry,this paper systematically explores the relationship between official tenure,industrial structure convergence and economic growth.Results show that:(1)The degree of convergence of urban industrial structure decreases first and then increases during the mayor’s tenure;(2)Under the promotion mechanism,officials will promote local economic growth by improving the convergence degree of local industrial structure,especially in the industries with high profits and taxes;(3)There is a“distortion”between China’s official selection mechanism and its actual industrial structure.Thus,convergence of industrial structure can concur with economic growth.This paper enriches and expands researches on regional economic growth,and provides empirical evidence for accelerating the transformation of government functions and optimizing regional industrial structure.

关 键 词：官员任期 产业结构 经济增长 城市群 官员晋升 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.9