基础设施投资的多重经济增长效应研究——基于区域间投入产出模型  

Research on the Multiple Economic Growth Effect of Infrastructure Investment——Based on the Inter-regional Input-output Model

作　　者：李晓阳[1] 代柳阳 易鑫 Li Xiaoyang;Dai Liuyang;Yi Xin(Rural Revitalization Strategy Research Institute,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学乡村振兴战略研究院,重庆400715

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2022年第2期82-110,共29页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“博弈视阈下农民工市民化诱导机理研究”(71373215);重庆市社会科学规划重点项目“成渝地区双城经济圈要素流动研究”(2021NDZD08);重庆市政府重大决策咨询项目“重庆发展现代山地特色高效农业总体思路和实现路径研究”(2021ZB02);西南大学人文社会科学研究重大项目培育“加速农业转移人口市民化制度支持体系研究”(SWU1909034)的联合资助。

摘　　要：在当前以国内大循环为主体的新发展格局下,基础设施投资依然是维持我国经济运行在合理水平的重要方式。本文从国内需求角度出发,运用区域间投入产出模型推导出产业投资与经济增长的关系,并将经济增长效应分解为乘数效应、溢出效应和反馈效应,以此测算我国四大城市群主要省市基础设施投资的多重经济增长效应。研究发现:(1)产业投资经济增长效应的收敛性与区域投资、消费结构有关;(2)多数地区中心型基础设施投资的乘数效应较高,成渝地区网络型基础设施投资的乘数效应相对较低;(3)各地区网络型基础设施投资的溢出效应较高,成渝地区受到其他地区的溢出效应较低,但自身对其他地区的溢出效应较高;(4)各地区网络型基础设施投资的反馈效应均高于中心型基础设施;(5)各地区基础设施投资的边际效应有所区别。本文将区域间投入产出模型引入基础设施投资的经济增长效应测算体系中,在丰富基础设施投资经济增长效应测算体系的同时,有助于优化不同区域基础设施投资的策略,为实现区域经济协调发展提供了一定参考。Nowadays,under the new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main body,infrastructure investment is still an important way to maintain China’s economic operation at a reasonable level.From the perspective of domestic demand,this paper uses the inter-regional input-output model to deduce the relationship between industrial investment and economic growth,and disintegrate the economic growth effect into multiplier effect,spillover effect and feedback effects,in order to measure the multiple economic growth effect of infrastructure investment in the major provinces and cities of China’s four major urban agglomerations.The results show that:(1)The convergence of economic growth effect of industrial investment is related to regional investment and consumption structure;(2)The multiplier effect of central infrastructure investment is relatively high in most regions,while the multiplier effect of network infrastructure investment in Chengdu-Chongqing region is relatively low;(3)The spillover effect of network infrastructure investment in each region is relatively high.ChengduChongqing region is less affected by the spillover effect of other regions,but its spillover effect to other regions is relatively high;(4)The feedback effect of network infrastructure investment is higher than that of central infrastructure in all regions;(5)The marginal effects of infrastructure investment in different regions are different.In this paper,the inter-regional inputoutput model is introduced into the calculation system of the economic growth effect of infrastructure investment.While enriching the calculation system of the economic growth effect of infrastructure investment,it is helpful to optimize the investment strategies of different regions,and provides some reference for realizing the coordinated development of regional economy.

关 键 词：基础设施投资 区域间投入产出模型 经济增长 产业关联 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]