海岸侵蚀作用下海岸带地区极端风暴洪水风险评估——以上海石化为例  

Risk assessment of extreme storm flooding in coastal zones under coastal erosion: A case study in Shanghai Petrochemical

作　　者：刘青[1,2,3] 张卫国[4] Nina Siu-Ngan Lam 王军[1,2,3] LIU Qing;ZHANG Weiguo;Nina Siu-Ngan Lam;WANG Jun(School of Geographic Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Key Laboratory of Geographic Science of Ministry of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Research Center for Urban Public Security,Shanghai 200241,China;State Key Laboratory of Estuary and Coast,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Department of Environmental Sciences,Louisiana State University,Baton Rouge 70803-5705,US)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241 [3]华东师范大学上海城市公共安全研究中心,上海200241 [4]华东师范大学河口海岸国家重点实验室,上海200241 [5]Department of Environmental Sciences,Louisiana State University,Baton Rouge US 70803-5705

出　　处：《海洋通报》2022年第2期200-207,共8页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFE0107400);上海市科委科技创新行动计划(19DZ1201505)。

摘　　要：海堤是海岸带地区社会经济活动的重要保护屏障。海岸侵蚀的加剧将导致海堤稳定性和安全性降低,增加海岸带地区遭受极端风暴洪水的风险,进而影响到海岸带地区的安全。本文选择上海石化这一遭受海岸侵蚀较为严重的区域作为研究区,利用GIS分析了1972—2020年近岸海床侵蚀特征,并基于2000—2020年-5 m等深线变化评估了上海石化近岸海堤的稳定性。结果表明:1972—2020年间上海石化前沿海床整体以侵蚀为主,石化近岸东侧以及西侧局部的浅滩侵蚀明显,城市沙滩中段、第6次围堤处以及码头东岸海堤稳定性最低。基于上述研究结果,考虑海堤稳定性薄弱段出现极端风暴洪水漫堤或溃堤情景,模拟并分析了上海石化2010年、2030年和2050年遭受千年一遇极端风暴洪水的风险。结果显示:在2010年基准年情景下,受海岸侵蚀作用最明显的城市沙滩和第6次围堤区域遭遇极端风暴洪水的风险最高,到2050年,当前稳定性较好的海堤安全性也将大大降低,与2010年相比,上海石化近岸地区的直接经济损失将会增加近3倍。Seawalls are the important protective barriers for social and economic activities in coastal areas. Coastal erosion can reduce the stability and safety of seawalls and increase the risk of extreme storm flooding, posing a severe threat to coastal areas. In this study, Shanghai petrochemical was selected as study area, which is suffering from serious coastal erosion. The erosion characteristics of the coastal seabed from 1972 to 2020 were analyzed using GIS, and the stability of Shanghai petrochemical seawall was evaluated based on the changes of-5 m contour from 2000 to 2020. The results show that the Shanghai petrochemical coastal bed was mainly eroded and the shoals on the east and west sides of the petrochemical coast were eroded severely. The middle section of the urban beach, the sixth dike and the seawall on the east shore of the dock have the lowest stability. Considering the scenarios of extreme storm flooding or bank breach in the weak section of the seawall, the risk of Shanghai petrochemical being exposed to the millennium extreme storm flooding in 2010, 2030 and 2050 was simulated and analyzed. The results indicate that under the 2010 base year scenario, the urban beaches and the 6th dike area that are most affected by coastal erosion have the highest extreme storm flood risk. By 2050, the current security status will also be greatly reduced, and the direct economic loss of Shanghai petrochemical coastal areas will quadruple the 2010 level.

关 键 词：海岸侵蚀 海堤稳定性 极端风暴洪水 风险评估 上海石化 

分 类 号：P737.1[天文地球—海洋地质] X43[天文地球—海洋科学]