基于灰色模型的较大以上道路交通事故发展趋势预测研究  

Research on the Prediction of the Development Trend of Larger Road TrafficCrashes Based on Grey Model

作　　者：王婷宇 张杰 WANG Tingyu;ZHANG Jie(Hunan Expressway Group Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410005,China;Research Institute of Highway,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省高速公路集团有限公司,长沙410005 [2]交通运输部公路科学研究所,北京100088

出　　处：《交通工程》2022年第3期71-76,共6页Journal of Transportation Engineering

摘　　要：针对道路交通事故的研究多集中于危险驾驶行为、车辆相容性设计、道路线形优化等道路交通事故的某一方面,且多集中于一般道路交通事故和重特大道路交通事故的分析,而对较大以上道路交通事故的发展趋势预测和事故特征研究较少.本文基于灰色模型对较大和重特大道路交通事故发展趋势进行预测研究后发现,在今后5年内,重特大事故将得到有效遏制,处于偶发状态;而较大事故虽呈下降趋势,但存量依然较大,事故数量和死亡人数仍处于较高位置.因此,在当前和今后一个时期,依托于前期对重特大道路交通事故的研究成果,增加开展对较大道路交通事故形成机理的研究,通过探寻较大道路交通事故的特征及发生规律,实现彻底消除重特大道路交通事故的发生,以及尽可能减少较大以上道路交通事故发生数量的目标,将成为安全研究和安全管控的重点方向.The level of reason has important practical significance.At present,there are more and more research studies on road traffic crashes,most of which focus on certain aspects of road traffic crashes such as dangerous driving behavior,vehicle compatibility design,road alignment optimization.Most of existing research focuses on general road traffic crashes and major crashes.For the analysis of road traffic crashes,there is little research on the development trend prediction and characteristics of larger road traffic crashes.Based on the grey model,this paper carried out a forecasting analysis on the development trend of major road traffic crashes,and found that in the next five years,extraordinary crashes will be effectively contained and are in a sporadic state;while major crashes are on a downward trend,but the fatalitiy is still relatively large.The number of crashes and fatalities is still high.Therefore,in the current and future periods,relying on the previous research results on major road traffic accidents,more research is needed to explore the formation mechanism of major road traffic crash,and achieve thorough results by analyzing the characteristics and occurrence rules of major road traffic crashes.The goal of eliminating the occurrence of major road traffic crashes and minimizing the number of larger road traffic crashes will become the focus of safety research and safety management and control.

关 键 词：重特大道路交通事故 较大道路交通事故 事故分析 灰色模型 发展趋势预测 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]