非静态种群动力学过程影响下的渔业资源评估与管理  

Fisheries stock assessment and management in the light of non-stationary population dynamics

作　　者：张帆 陈新军[1,2,3] ZHANG Fan;CHEN Xinjun(College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploitation,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋科学学院,上海201306 [2]大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室,上海201306 [3]农业农村部大洋渔业开发重点实验室,上海201306

出　　处：《上海海洋大学学报》2022年第3期612-619,共8页Journal of Shanghai Ocean University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(32002393,41876141);农业农村部全球渔业资源调查监测专项(2021年度)。

摘　　要：科学有效的渔业资源评估与管理是实现渔业资源可持续开发和利用的重要保障。传统的渔业资源评估与管理基于不变性假设,认为关键种群动力学过程不随时间发生变化。随着气候变化和人类活动的影响,种群的关键动力学过程可能随时间发生系统性的变化,形成非静态种群动力学过程,并在很大程度上颠覆了传统的不变性假设。结合近年来国际相关领域的研究成果,系统地阐述了非静态种群动力学过程的形成机制以及其对渔业资源评估模型、生物学参考点和渔业管理理念的影响。分析认为,在非静态种群动力学过程影响下,渔业资源评估模型和生物学参考点都需要考虑到关键种群动力学过程的时间变化,需要通过引入外部环境变量或者随时间变化的种群动力学参数,来应对非静态种群动力学过程对资源评估与管理带来的影响。研究建议,基于弹性的渔业管理是我们未来应对非静态种群动力学过程、维持渔业社会-生态系统稳定和健康的重要发展方向。Effective fisheries stock assessment and management is the key to achieving sustainable exploitation of fisheries resources. Traditional fisheries stock assessment and management is based on the assumption of stationarity, which considers key processes of population dynamics as time invariant. With increasing impact of climate change and human activities, these key processes may change over time, leading to non-stationary population dynamics and challenging the traditional assumption of stationarity. Based on the recently published research on this topic, we reviewed the mechanisms of non-stationary population dynamics and their impacts on fisheries stock assessment models, biological reference points and fisheries management. The results indicate that in the light of non-stationary population dynamics, both stock assessment models and biological reference points need to consider the temporal variation of key population processes, either by including environmental covariates or by time-varying model parameters, to deal with the impacts of non-stationary population dynamics on fisheries stock assessment and management. We suggest that resilience-based fisheries management is an important tool to cope with non-stationary population dynamics and maintain a stable and healthy fisheries social-ecological system.

关 键 词：非静态种群动力学过程 生物学参考点 渔业资源评估 渔业管理 

分 类 号：S937.3[农业科学—渔业资源]