基于ASTEC程序的严重事故产氢关键参数影响研究  

Study on the Effect of Key Parameters on Hydrogen Generation in Severe Accident Analysis by ASTEC Code

作　　者：陈美兰 陈鹏 CHEN Meilan;CHEN Peng(China Nulcear Power Technology Research Institute Co.,LTD.,Shenzhen of Guangdong Prov.518026,China)

机构地区：[1]中广核研究院有限公司,广东深圳518026

出　　处：《核科学与工程》2022年第2期408-415,共8页Nuclear Science and Engineering

摘　　要：严重事故现象非常复杂,对其进行的确定论分析中存在一定的不确定性。本研究基于严重事故系统性分析程序ASTEC,开展了严重事故产氢关键参数研究。首先基于ASTEC程序模型和严重事故产氢现象机理分析,初步确定严重事故产氢关键参数,采用拉丁超立方抽样方法开展关键参数的敏感性分析,并采用多元线性回归方法探讨关键参数与严重事故产氢计算结果的相关性,定量给出了严重事故产氢关键参数对产氢结果的影响情况。结果表明,锆包壳失效前可承受的最大蠕变、包壳破裂时裂缝轴向扩张等参数对严重事故堆内产氢的计算结果影响较小,而锆氧化模型以及锆氧化物、二氧化铀的熔化温度等参数对严重事故堆内产氢有较大的影响。在严重事故分析研究中,应对关键参数进行合理的取值。本研究成果可为严重事故产氢现象研究提供参考。The phenomena in severe accidents are quite complicated and there are uncertainties in the key models, the modeling characteristic is a crucial issue for severe accident analysis.This paper studies the effects of key parameters on hydrogen generation in severe accidents analysis by ASTEC code. The key parameters such as the zirconium oxidation models, melting points of the fuel etc., are identified based on the analysis of key phenomena related to hydrogen generation and the ASTEC models. Then the Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS)method is applied to perform the sensitivity analysis assumed that the probabilistic distribution of the key parameters are uniform in a given interval. Finally the results are analyzed by a multi-linear regression method and the effects of key parameters of hydrogen generation are assessed quantitatively. The results show that the zirconium oxidation model and the melting temperature of the zirconium oxide and the fuel have direct impacts on t he hydrogen production, while the effects of the parameters of maximum hoop creep until failure(EPMX) and crack criteria(CRAC) is limited. The analysis results can be used as best guides for the hydrogen safety analysis during the severe accidents research.

关 键 词：严重事故 ASTEC 产氢 拉丁超立方抽样 

分 类 号：TL334[核科学技术—核技术及应用]