人民币贬值和汇率稳定政策的理论探讨——基于动态汇率模型的分析  

Theoretical Discussion on the Depreciation of RMB and the Exchange Rate Stabilization Policy:Analysis on a Dynamic Exchange Rate Model

作　　者：刘芸 许志伟 王鹏飞 LIU Yun;XU Zhiwei;WANG Pengfei(Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance,Shanghai,201209;HSBC Business School,Peking University,Shenzhen,518055)

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计金融学院 [2]北京大学汇丰商学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2022年第2期43-54,共12页China Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(19YJC790087)。

摘　　要：近年来,尽管中国经济稳中有进,人民币兑美元汇率却持续走弱。如何理解并应对人民币持续贬值已成为当前政府面临的最大挑战之一。本文构建了一个具有资本管制的动态汇率模型,从理论角度证明,汇率可能存在高低两个均衡,即便不具备贬值基础,对人民币汇率或实体经济的悲观预期仍会引发汇率从高均衡滑向低均衡的持续性贬值。因此,要稳定预期引起的贬值,关键在于改变汇率的自我实现动态,即将潜在的低汇率均衡彻底排除。对此,本文结合理论模型探讨了三种潜在汇率稳定政策选择,为双循环时期我国的汇率政策提供了一个新的参考。Despite the steady progress of China’s economy,the RMB against the US dollar has depreciated continuously.Understanding and stabilizing the depreciation of the RMB has become one of the biggest challenges faced by the Chinese government.This paper constructs a dynamic exchange rate model with capital control and theoretically proves that there may exist multiple(high and low)equilibria for the exchange rate.Even if there is no basis for depreciation,the pessimistic expectation of the RMB exchange rate or real economy will still trigger the sustained depreciation of the exchange rate from high equilibrium to low equilibrium.Therefore,to stabilize the devaluation caused by expectation,the key lies in changing the self-fulfilling dynamic of the exchange rate,that is,eliminating the potential low exchange rate equilibrium.In this regard,this paper discusses three potential policy options of exchange rate reform based on theoretical models,providing a new reference for China’s exchange rate policy in the period of dual circulation.

关 键 词：人民币贬值 汇率稳定政策 动态汇率模型 资本管制 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]