炫耀性消费影响家庭生育决策吗  

Does Conspicuous Consumption Affect Family Fertility Decisions

作　　者：万春林[1] 张卫 WAN Chunlin;ZHANG Wei(Sichuan University,Chengdu,610064;Southwest Minzu University,Chengdu,610041)

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院 [2]西南民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2022年第2期137-150,共14页China Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71673194);四川省社会科学青年项目(SC19C018)。

摘　　要：炫耀性消费现象在中国越来越普遍,基于此本文研究炫耀性消费对家庭生育决策的影响。首先,构建三期世代交叠模型进行理论分析,结果显示,炫耀性消费对生育子女数量呈负向影响;其次,采用中国综合社会调查(CGSS2015)数据进行实证检验,生育子女数用理想生育子女数代替。结果显示,尽管炫耀性消费对理想生育子女数影响较小,但以不同指标衡量的炫耀性消费都对理想生育子女数存在显著负向影响,其中,在1980年后出生的人群中炫耀性消费对理想生育子女数负向影响更大。因此,若能降低物质攀比、减少炫耀性消费比重,则将会对生育率的回升产生积极影响。Conspicuous consumption is common seen in China.This paper investigates the impact of conspicuous consumption on household fertility decision.First,an overlapping generation model of three periods including conspicuous consumption and fertility is constructed,and the trade-off between quantity and quality of children is considered.The theoretical results show that conspicuous consumption has a negative effect on the number of children.Second,the data from the 2015 Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS2015)is used to conduct an empirical analysis,the number of children born is replaced by the number of fertility desires.The empirical results show that the coefficient of conspicuous consumption impact on the number of children is small,but it has a significant negative impact on the number of children.What’s more,conspicuous consumption has a greater negative impact on the number of children in the post-1980 s.Therefore,if it can reduce bandwagon and the proportion of conspicuous consumption,it will have a positive impact on the rise of fertility.

关 键 词：相对消费 炫耀性消费 生育意愿 OLG模型 CGSS数据 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] F126.1