全球变暖的解释模式:温室效应理论与气候的自然波动假说  

Explanation Model of Global Warming:Greenhouse Effect Theory and Natural Fluctuation Hypothesis of Climate

作　　者：赖明东 雍熙 史文静[1] LAI Ming-dong;YONG Xi;SHI Wen-jing(School of Humanities and Media,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211;Information Center of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100053,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学人文与传媒学院,浙江宁波315211 [2]水利部信息中心,北京100053

出　　处：《自然辩证法研究》2022年第5期69-74,95,共7页Studies in Dialectics of Nature

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“科学共同体内部争论的公众传播研究”(21BXW114);宁波大学科研项目“碳达峰、碳中和视域下的气候变化争议及其科普问题研究”(ZX2022000214)。

摘　　要：以科学理论评价的视角分析气候争议问题,厘清气候的自然波动学说和温室效应理论是什么,它们分别如何解释1880年以后出现的全球变暖现象,以及气候的自然波动学说存在什么缺陷导致与之竞争的理论胜出。在说明温室效应气候理论发展过程的同时,通过说明自然波动假说因为解释1880年以后全球变暖遇到不能解释的反常现象而成为一种解释能力较弱的理论,反过来说明与之竞争的温室效应气候理论相对来说更具有合理性,提示那种气候系统可以通过自我调节完全消除人类活动所带来的影响的想法是危险的,人类必须关注二氧化碳浓度增加带来的微小反馈累积起来对气候系统的巨大影响。From the perspective of scientific theoretical evaluation,this paper analyzes the climate controversial issues,clarifies what the natural fluctuation theory of climate and the greenhouse effect theory are,how they explain the global warming phenomenon after 1880,and what defects exist in the natural fluctuation theory of climate,leading to the victory of the competing theory.While explaining the development process of the greenhouse effect climate theory,by explaining that the natural fluctuation hypothesis has become a theory with weak explanatory ability because of the unexplained abnormal phenomena encountered in explaining global warming after 1880,in turn,it shows the relative rationality of the competing greenhouse effect climate theory,It suggests that the idea that the climate system completely eliminates the impact of human activities through self-regulation is dangerous.Human beings must pay attention to the huge impact on the climate system caused by the small feedback brought by the increase of carbon dioxide concentration.

关 键 词：全球变暖 气候争议 温室效应 自然波动假说 

分 类 号：N031[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学]