基于系统动力学的电煤供应链节能减排路径仿真分析  

Path Simulation and Analysis of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in Electric-coal Supply Chain Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：贺勇[1] 卫岂伦 廖诺[1] HE Yong;WEI Qilun;LIAO Nuo(School of Management,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510520,China)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学管理学院,广东广州510520

出　　处：《工业工程》2022年第3期39-46,94,共9页Industrial Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71974038);教育部社科规划基金资助项目(21YJAZH048);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金资助项目(2022A1515010758);广东省哲学社科规划基金资助项目(GD18CGL10)。

摘　　要：为分析不同节能减排路径对能源消耗和碳排放的影响,从经济、能源和环境等系统要素出发,构建电煤供应链节能减排系统动力学模型。以神华集团为例,确定模型参数及主要方程,分析链上各环节的能源消耗、碳排放及节能减排路径,动态仿真不同路径的节能减排效果。结果表明,发电环节节能减排潜力大于其他环节;降低燃煤机组发电标准煤耗率,提高铁路运输在煤炭运输中的比重,降低煤炭开采过程中的耗电系数,增加环保治理投资,是电煤供应链节能减排的有效途径;不同路径的节能减排效果存在差异,其中降低发电标准煤耗率对节能减排产生的效果最为明显。In order to investigate the effect of different paths of energy-conservation and emission-reduction in electric-coal supply chain,a systematic model is constructed to simulate the energy-conservation and emission-reduction system,considering the economy,energy and environment goals.Taking Shen Hua Group as a case study,first,the parameters and main equations are determined,and the energy consumption,carbon emissions and the path of energy saving and emission reduction are analyzed,and the energy saving and emission reduction effects of different paths are simulated through the system dynamics model.The findings of this study include as follows:at first,the potential for energy saving and emission reduction in process of power generation is greater than other processes;secondly,reducing the standard coal consumption rate of coal-fired units,increasing the proportion of railway transportation in coal transportation,reducing the power consumption coefficient in coal mining,and increasing the investment in environmental protection treatment are effective ways to save energy and reduce emission in the electric-coal supply chain;third,there are differences in energy saving and emission reduction effects of different paths,and reducing the standard coal consumption rate of power generation has the most obvious effect on energy saving and emission reduction.

关 键 词：节能减排 电煤供应链 系统动力学 动态仿真 

分 类 号：N941[自然科学总论—系统科学]