基于历史地震数据的地震烈度与人员死亡率相关性研究  

Research on Correlation between Earthquake Intensity and Mortality Rate Based on Historical Earthquake Data

作　　者：夏朝旭 聂高众[1] 李华玥 范熙伟[1] 周军学 Xia Chaoxu;Nie Gaozhong;Li Huayue;Fan Xiwei;Zhou Junxue(Institute of Geoloy,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China;China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China;Earthquake Agency of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Nanning 530022,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029 [2]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [3]广西壮族自治区地震局,南宁530022

出　　处：《中国地震》2022年第1期153-165,共13页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：中国地震局地质研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(IGCEA2106);国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1504503、2018YFC1504403);“大中城市地震灾害情景构建”重点专项(2016QJGJ14);青年科学基金项目(41601390)共同资助。

摘　　要：基于历史震例数据,通过对不同烈度的人员死亡率的分析发现,人员死亡率与地震烈度存在着正相关关系,即人员死亡率随烈度的增加而增大,不同烈度的人员死亡率有各自的分布区间范围,而通过对相邻烈度的人员死亡率的分析发现,相邻烈度人员死亡率存在着1个数量级的倍数关系,一般在10倍左右,在低烈度区域,倍数关系集中于偏向大于10倍的区间范围;在高烈度区域,倍数关系集中于小于10倍的区间范围。在此结果上,基于地震烈度、震级等因素构建了烈度人员死亡率模型,决定系数R 2值为0.8667,拟合结果相对较好,能够为后续基于分烈度人员死亡率的地震人员死亡评估模型提供参考。Using the historical earthquake data we carried out a study on the mortality rate of each intensity in this paper.Through the analysis,we found that there is a positive correlation between the mortality rate and the intensity,and the mortality rate increases with the increase of intensity,in which the mortality rate with different intensity has its own distribution range.We also found that there exists a multiple relationship of the adjacent intensity mortality rate,generally around 10 times.In the low-intensity area,the multiple relationship is concentrated in the interval range that is more than 10 times,in the high-intensity area,the multiple relationship is concentrated in the interval range that is less than 10 times.Finally,we built a mortality rate model for intensity which based on seismic intensity,magnitude and etc.with the model determination coefficient R 2 value of 0.8667.Our model can provide a technical tool for the subsequent earthquake death assessment modeling based on the intensity mortality rate.

关 键 词：死亡率 烈度 相关性 倍数关系 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]