兼顾时序特性和不确定性的柔性配电网概率网损分摊方法  

Probabilistic Loss Allocation Method for Flexible Distribution Network Considering Time Series Characteristics and Uncertainty

作　　者：吴科成 吴晗 王凤学 曲毅 董红 WU Kecheng;WU Han;WANG Fengxue;QU Yi;DONG Hong(Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510600,China;South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China;Power Grid Planning and Research Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510030,China;Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510610,China)

机构地区：[1]广东电网有限责任公司,广州510600 [2]华南理工大学,广州510640 [3]广东电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心,广州510030 [4]广东电网广州供电局,广州510610

出　　处：《南方电网技术》2022年第6期82-93,共12页Southern Power System Technology

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费重大产学研合作扶持专项(x2dlD2201280);广东电网公司技术咨询项目(030000QQ00190003)。

摘　　要：针对分布式电源、波动负荷及线路参数的随机性和相关性对柔性互联配电网带来的多重不确定性,构建了兼顾源网荷时序特性和不确定性的柔性配电网概率网损分摊方法。首先,建立多重不确定参数的时序模型,采用基于Nataf逆变换的三点估计法转化为多时间场景下的交直流概率潮流求解;然后,提出随机性设备的网损影响指标体系,基于时间场景采用改进层次分析-熵值定权法确定DG、EV充电桩的网损变化贡献率,将网损变化量基于贡献率分摊给DG和EV充电桩,并通过Cornish-Fisher级数拟合分摊电量的概率密度函数,综合时间场景得全年网损分摊概率密度函数;最后,基于改进33节点柔性配电网和改进东莞松山湖拓扑验证所提算法的有效性。Aiming at the multiple uncertainties brought by the randomness and correlation of distributed generation,fluctuating load and line parameters to flexible interconnected distribution network,a probabilistic loss allocation method for flexible distribution network considering the time series characteristics and uncertainty of source network load is constructed.Firstly,the time series model with multiple uncertain parameters is established,and the three-point estimation method based on nataf inverse transform is transformed into AC/DC probabilistic power flow in multi-time scenario;Then,the network loss impact index system of random equipment is proposed.Based on the time scenario,the improved analytic hierarchy process entropy weighting method is used to determine the network loss change contribution rate of DG and EV charging piles.The network loss change is allocated to DG and EV charging piles based on the contribution rate,and the probability density function of allocated electricity is fitted by Cornish Fisher level,The annual network loss allocation probability density function is obtained by integrating the time scenario;Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is verified based on the improved 33-node flexible distribution network and the improved Dongguan Songshan Lake topology.

关 键 词：柔性配电网 时序特性 概率潮流 网损分摊 三点估计法 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]