新发展阶段下的中国经济周期波动——波动率缓和、经济增长收敛与经济长波态势  

China’s Business Cycle in the New Development Stage:The “Great Moderation”,the “Great Fluctuation” and the Economic Long Wave

作　　者：刘金全[1,2] 周欣 LIU Jin-quan;ZHOU Xin

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]广州大学经济与统计学院 [3]吉林大学商学与管理学院,长春130012

出　　处：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2022年第3期88-100,236,共14页Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA042)。

摘　　要：经济“大缓和”、“大波动”、增长型经济周期和经济增长收敛是宏观经济研究领域的核心议题。然而,鲜有研究将这些概念彼此联系、相互统一并给出逻辑性解析。在对中国经济周期波动典型化事实梳理的基础上,系统地总结这些概念之间的关系并提出增长型长波这一重要的经济概念。研究发现:“大缓和”和“大波动”都是增长型经济周期的必要形态,它们的平顺交替是增长型经济周期连续出现的前提;而正是连续增长型经济周期的出现才能促成经济长波;通常,在发展中国家追求赶超的道路上,经济长波的出现是最理想的增长路径,长波的前期对应着经济增长“绝对收敛”,中期对应着经济增长“条件收敛”、而后期则对应着经济增长“集团收敛”;目前,中国已经进入了“中高收入集团”,这与首轮增长型长波的成功实现密不可分;而中国新一轮增长型长波的理想形态则是以“十四五”时期的新发展阶段为起点,长期围绕中高速趋势盘桓,这是中国在2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的重要前提,亦是推进共同富裕、实现百年中国梦的经济保障。The“great moderation”,“great fluctuation”,growth cycle and economic convergence are the core topics in macroeconomic. However,few studies link these concepts to each other,and give a consistent logic. This article systematically summarizes the relationship between these concepts on the basis of combing the typical facts of China’s business cycle,and puts forward the important concept of “economic long wave”. The research finds that: “Great moderation”and“great fluctuation”are both necessary forms of growth business cycles. Their smooth alternation is the prerequisite for the continuous emergence of growth cycles;and it is the emergence of continuous growth cycles that can contribute to the long economic wave. Usually,in developing countries’ pursuit of catching up,the emergence of a long economic wave is the most ideal growth path. The early period of the long wave corresponds to the“absolute convergence”,the medium term to the“convergence of economic conditions”,and the later period corresponds to the “club convergence ”. At present,China’s economy has entered a“medium-to-high income”group,which is inseparable from the successful realization of the first round of growth long wave. Nowadays,the ideal pattern of China’s new round of growth long wave is starting at the point of“14th Five-Year Plan”,and operates around medium-to-high speed in the long run. It is the historical prerequisite for China to build a modern and powerful socialist country by 2035,and also the economic guarantee for the realization of the Chinese dream of common prosperity.

关 键 词：“大缓和” “大波动” 增长型经济周期 经济增长收敛 经济长波 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]