国际汇款、金融发展、制度环境与经济增长  

International remittance,financial development,institutional environment and economic growth

作　　者：张洁[1] 林勇[2] ZHANG Jie;LIN Yong(Institute of Modern Taiwan,Fujian Academy of Social Sciences,Fuzhou 350001,China;Institute of Overseas Chinese,Fujian Academy of Social Sciences,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]福建社会科学院现代台湾研究所,福建福州350001 [2]福建社会科学院华侨华人研究所,福建福州350001

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2022年第6期98-109,共12页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“移民汇款对移民来源国经济发展的影响”(11BRK004)。

摘　　要：国际汇款在一定条件下才能促进收款国的经济增长。基于114个发展中国家在1981—2018年间的非平衡面板数据,先运用混合最小二乘法(POLS)、固定效应模型(FE)进行基准估计,继而采用工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(IV-2SLS)和广义矩方法(GMM)以解决潜在的内生性问题,探究金融发展和制度环境是否构成国际汇款影响经济增长的重要条件。结果显示:金融发展和制度环境是国际汇款影响经济增长的重要前提条件。在不考虑金融发展或制度环境影响的情况下,国际汇款对经济增长产生负向效应。在纳入金融发展或制度环境变量以后,国际汇款对经济增长产生正向效应,即国际汇款通过金融发展或制度环境才对经济增长产生正向效应。因此,只有在金融体系较为发达和制度较为完善的发展中国家,国际汇款才能促进经济增长。基于结论,提出要监测国际汇款的未来流量,制定相应的金融发展政策,建立健全相关制度和政策措施,完善金融基础设施,引导更多国际汇款从消费转向生产性投资等几点政策启示。International remittances can only promote economic growth under certain conditions.Based on the unbalanced panel data of 114 developing countries from 1981 to 2018,using pooled least squares(POLS),fixed effects model(FE)first,and then instrumental variables two-stage least squares method(IV-2SLS)and the generalized moment method(GMM)to solve potential endogenous problems,this paper explored whether financial development and institutional environment constitute important conditions for international remittances to affect economic growth.The results show that financial development and institutional environment are important prerequisites for international remittances to affect economic growth.Without considering the impact of financial development or the institutional environment,international remittances have a negative effect on economic growth.After incorporating financial development or institutional environment variables,international remittances have a positive effect on economic growth,that is,international remittances have a positive effect on economic growth only through financial development or institutional environment.Therefore,only in developing countries with a relatively developed financial system and a relatively complete system,international remittances can promote economic growth.Based on the conclusions,this article proposes to monitor the future flow of international remittances,formulate corresponding financial development policies,establish and improve relevant systems and policy measures,improve financial infrastructure,and guide more international remittances from consumption to productive investment.

关 键 词：国际汇款 经济增长效应 金融发展 制度环境 移民汇款 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]