1954—2016年疏勒河上游径流变化特征及影响因素  

Characteristics and influencing factors of runoff changes in the upper Shule River basin from 1954 to 2016

作　　者：孙美平[1,2] 张磊 姚晓军 彭莉斌[1] 张浩 牛舒婷 SUN Meiping;ZHANG Lei;YAO Xiaojun;PENG Libin;ZHANG Hao;NIU Shuting(College of Geography and Environment Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2022年第2期657-666,共10页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金项目(21JR7RA143);甘肃省科技计划资助项目(2021QB-019);国家自然科学基金项目(42161027)资助。

摘　　要：河川径流是西北干旱区重要的水资源,辨析其变化特征及影响因素对于认识气候变化背景下的河流水文变化规律具有重要意义。基于1954—2016年昌马堡水文站日径流数据、疏勒河流域周边气象站和探空站观测数据和两次冰川编目数据,采用线性趋势、经验模态分解、分层回归等方法系统分析了疏勒河上游径流长时间序列变化特征及可能影响因素。结果表明:1954—2016年疏勒河上游年径流、汛期和非汛期径流均呈显著增加趋势,其中年径流变化率为1.00×10^(8)m^(3)·(10a)^(-1);流域径流在1999年发生突变,具有15a和7a左右的振荡周期,且15a时间尺度最为显著;正积温和降水是影响疏勒河上游径流的主要气候因子,可解释80%以上的径流变化;疏勒河上游夏季径流与0℃层高度呈显著正相关(r≥0.7),即利用大气0℃层高度可预测该河流汛期径流变化,这对于评估西北干旱区冰川融水补给型河流径流变化具有重要参考价值;1966—2006年期间疏勒河上游流域冰川冰储量减少约5.77km^(3),表明冰川变化在流域径流变化和调节方面起着至关重要作用。River runoff is an important water resource in the arid region of northwest China. Under the background of climate change,the exploration on change characteristics and influencing factors of river runoff is of great significance for understanding the law of river hydrological change. Based on the daily discharge of Changmabao hydrological station,the observation materials from meteorological stations and radiosonde stations,and the first and second Chinese glacier inventory,the variation characteristics and possible influencing factors of runoff in the upper Shule River were systematically analyzed by using the linear trend,empirical mode decomposition and hierarchical multiple regression. The results show that the annual runoff of the upper Shule River showed a significant increasing trend during 1954—2016,with a rate of 1.00×10^(8)m^(3)·(10a)^(-1). Both runoff in flood period and non-flood period also showed a similar increasing trend. The runoff suddenly changed in 1999 and had two oscillation periods of about 15a and 7a,among them the 15a oscillation period was the most significant. Both cumulative positive temperature and precipitation were the main climatic factors affecting the runoff in the upper Shule River,which can explain more than 80% of the runoff change. There was a significant positive correlation between the summer runoff in the upper Shule River and the height of 0℃ layer. It means that the height changes of 0℃ layer can be used to predict the runoff change of the river in flood period,which provides an important reference for evaluating the runoff change of glacial melt recharge rivers in the arid region of northwest China. From 1966 to 2006,the ice volume in the upper Shule River basin decreased by about 5.77km^(3),indicating that glacier changes play a crucial role in the change and regulation of runoff in the basin.

关 键 词：径流 气候变化 冰川 0℃层 疏勒河 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]