赤峪煤矿煤层突出危险性预测敏感指标的确定  

Determination of sensitive index for prediction of coal outburst risk in Chiyu Coal Mine

作　　者：张逸龙 吴彦 方书昊 廖奇 杨印朝 朱红青[1] ZHANG Yilong;WU Yan;FANG Shuhao;LIAO Qi;YANG Yinchao;ZHU Hongqing(School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining&Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;Kailuan(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Tangshan 063020,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)应急管理与安全工程学院,北京100083 [2]开滦(集团)有限责任公司,河北唐山063020

出　　处：《矿业安全与环保》2022年第3期84-87,93,共5页Mining Safety & Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52064046,51804311)。

摘　　要：以赤峪煤矿2号煤层为研究对象,采用灰色关联分析法对钻屑量S和钻屑瓦斯解吸指标Δh_(2)(“二指标”)进行预测,确定“二指标”与2号煤层发生突出的可能性之间的敏感性;结合“三率法”(预测突出率、预测突出准确率、预测不突出准确率)对突出危险性预测指标进行分析,确定临界值;采用“三率法”对“二指标”进行分析,验证临界值的有效性。研究结果表明:灰色关联度P(S)=0.909>P(Δh_(2))=0.896,S作为预测指标的敏感度更高;确定了S和Δh_(2)临界值分别为7.4 kg/m、200 Pa。现场效果检验表明,所确定的2号煤层突出危险性预测指标临界值合理。Taking No.2 coal seam of Chiyu Coal Mine as the research object,the grey correlation analysis method was used to predict the drilling cuttings quantity S and gas desorption index of drilling cuttingsΔh_(2)(the“two indicators”)and to determine the sensitivity between the“two index”and the possibility of outburst of No.2 coal seam;combined with“three rate method”(predicted outburst rate,predicted outburst accuracy rate,predicted non-outburst accuracy rate),the prediction index of outburst risk was analyzed and the critical value was determined;the“three rate method”was used to analyze the“two indicators”and verify the validity of the critical value.The results show that:grey correlation degree P(S)=0.909>P(Δh_(2))=0.896,the S is more sensitive as a predictor;the critical values of S andΔh_(2)are determined to be 7.4 kg/m and 200 Pa,respectively.The field effect test shows that the critical value of the prediction index of No.2 coal seam outburst risk is reasonable.

关 键 词：煤与瓦斯突出 突出预测 敏感性指标 临界值 灰色关联分析 三率法 

分 类 号：TD713[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]