美国南海政策的演变特征与成效评估(2009—2022)  

On the Changing Characteristics and Result Evaluation of U.S. South China Sea Policy

作　　者：金永明 崔婷 JIN Yongming;CUI Ting(School of International Affairs and Public Administration,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,Shandong;School of Law,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,Shandong)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学国际事务与公共管理学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学法学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《南洋问题研究》2022年第2期101-114,共14页Southeast Asian Affairs

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“我国南海岛礁所涉重大现实问题及其对策研究”(16ZDA073);国家社科基金重大研究专项“维护钓鱼岛主权研究”(18VFH010)。

摘　　要：美国南海政策受中美关系的影响,是中美战略竞争的重要组成部分。自2009年美国积极介入南海问题以来,其南海政策不断发生演变,从奥巴马政府的“双轨政策”到特朗普政府的“武力威慑”再到拜登政府的“一体化威慑”,促使南海问题持续升温。在南海问题上,美国主要通过军事、外交和法律3种手段,相互结合、综合运用,最大限度地威慑和遏制中国,维护美国的霸权地位。通过对美国南海政策的实践成效进行评估发现,美国南海政策的调整引发域内国家与域外国家、南海领土主权争议与海洋秩序争议等多层面的联动反应,使南海问题变得更具复杂性和不确定性。但从长期考量看,美国南海政策的实施存在诸多内在局限性。文章进一步指出,中国需保持战略定力,努力塑造中美关系,进一步发展与东盟的周边外交关系,不断加强在法理层面的有力回击,从而运筹南海问题,维护南海地区的和平与稳定。As an important part of Sino-U.S. strategic competition, the U.S. South China Sea policy is influenced by the bilateral relations. The United States has actively intervened in the South China Sea issue since 2009, and its South China Sea policy has evolved continuously, from the Obama administration’s “dual-track policy” to the Trump administration’s “coercive deterrence” and then to the Biden administration’s “integrated deterrence”, making the South China Sea issue persistent warming up. On the South China Sea issue, the United States mainly combined military, diplomatic and legal means, aiming to deter and contain China to the maximum extent and to maintain its hegemonic position. Through the evaluation of the practical effect of the U.S. South China Sea policy, it is found that the adjustment of the U.S. policy has triggered a multi-level interaction between intra-regional and extraterritorial countries, marine territorial sovereignty disputes and marine order contest, making the South China Sea issue more complex and uncertain. However, from a long-term, the implementation of the US South China Sea policy has many inherent limitations. Based on the evaluation of the effectiveness of the South China Sea Policy of the United States, it is pointed out that China should maintain strategic patience, striving to build the Sino-U.S. relations, further develop the neighboring diplomatic relations with ASEAN, and constantly strengthen the powerful counterattack at the legal level, so as to manage the South China Sea issue and maintain the peace and stability in the South China Sea.

关 键 词：美国南海政策 南海问题 遏制措施 成效评估 中美关系 

分 类 号：D822[政治法律—政治学]