基于增长混合模型的全球烟草流行趋势研究  

Study on global tobacco prevalence trend based on growth mixture modeling

作　　者：段宇祺 王宗斌[1] 周书铎 梁志生 尹慧[1] 郑志杰 DUAN Yu-qi;WANG Zong-bin;ZHOU Shu-duo;LIANG Zhi-sheng;YIN Hui;ZHENG Zhi-jie(Department of Global Health,School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学公共卫生学院全球卫生学系,北京100191

出　　处：《卫生软科学》2022年第7期24-30,共7页Soft Science of Health

摘　　要：[目的]描述全球烟草流行的整体发展趋势,识别不同国家/地区的烟草流行模式及其特点。[方法]数据来源于世界卫生组织全球卫生观察站,涵盖2007-2018年全球149个国家/地区,以15岁及以上人群当前烟草使用率为代表的烟草流行水平数据。采用增长混合模型进行趋势聚类分析,基于烟草使用率的初始水平及变化速度将所有国家/地区划分为具有不同烟草流行发展轨迹的类别。[结果]2007-2018年,全球149个国家/地区的烟草流行发展轨迹可划分为6个类别,各个类别中烟草使用率的初始水平分别为57.51%、51.33%、37.68%、33.26%、28.20%、15.54%,每年下降速度分别为0.73%、1.07%、0.17%、0.95%、0.37%、0.37%。根据初始水平-下降速度的相对大小,将其分别定义为高流行-中高下降组(占比2.7%)、高流行-高下降组(占比2.0%)、中流行-低下降组(占比12.1%)、中流行-高下降组(占比8.7%)、中流行-中低下降组(占比40.9%)、低流行-中低下降组(占比33.5%)。[结论]全球烟草流行趋势仍存在较大差异,需以系统思维全面改善烟草控制政策及实践。Objective To describe the prevalence trend of global tobacco use and identify the patterns and characteristics of tobacco prevalence in different countries/regions.Methods The data came from WHO Global Health Observatory,covered 149 countries/regions from 2007 to 2018,which on tobacco prevalence levels represented by current tobacco use among people 15 years of age and older.The growth mixture modeling was used for trend clustering analysis.All countries/regions were classified into different categories of tobacco prevalence trajectories based on initial levels and rates of change of tobacco use.Results From 2007 to 2018,the categories of tobacco prevalence trajectories in 149 countries/regions of the world could be divided into 6 categories,the initial levels of tobacco use was 57.51%,51.33%,37.68%,33.26%,28.20%and 15.54%respectively in each category.The annual decreasing rates was 0.73%,1.07%,0.17%,0.95%,0.37%and 0.37%respectively.According to relative size of initial levels and rate of descent,they were defined as high prevalence-middle and high decline group(accounted for 2.7%),high prevalence-high decline group(accounted for 2.0%),middle prevalence-high decline group(accounted for 12.1%),middle prevalence-high decline group(accounted for 8.7%),middle prevalence-middle and low decline group(accounted for 40.9%),low prevalence-middle and low decline group(accounted for 33.5%).Conclusions There are still great differences in the global tobacco prevalence trends,and systematic thinking is needed to improve tobacco control policies and practices.

关 键 词：全球烟草流行 增长混合模型 趋势聚类分析 

分 类 号：R19[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]