股市传闻对证券分析师预测行为的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Stock Market Rumors on Analysts'Forecasting Behaviors

作　　者：孙晶慧 苏苒然 齐保垒[3] SUN Jing-hui;SU Ran-ran;QI Bao-lei

机构地区：[1]西安邮电大学经济与管理学院 [2]浙江大学管理学院 [3]西安交通大学管理学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2022年第7期61-70,99,共11页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“签字注册会计师的社会资本、审计行为与职业发展”(项目编号:72102180);国家自然科学基金面上项目“股票发行注册制改革、信息披露质量与资源分配效率”(项目编号:72172116);陕西省教育厅智库重点项目“数字经济背景下政务数据资产化实现路径与策略研究”(项目编号:21JT036)。

摘　　要：股市传闻作为一类未经证实但却得以传播的信息,对于资本市场健康平稳运行产生不利影响。本文聚焦于证券分析师这一重要资本市场信息中介视角,系统考察了目标公司股市传闻情况对于分析师预测行为所产生的具体影响及其内在机理,研究发现上市公司发生传闻会降低分析师对其盈余预测的准确度,且发生传闻次数越多,分析师盈余预测准确度越低。影响机制检验表明股市传闻主要通过增加信息筛选难度以及分散注意力的方式来负面影响分析师预测精度。相较利好传闻而言,利空传闻对分析师盈余预测准确度的负面影响更明显。本文不仅拓展了股市传闻所引致经济后果以及分析师预测行为影响因素的相关研究文献与考察视角,也为切实管控中国股市传闻以促进资本市场高质量发展提供了有益借鉴。As a kind of unverified but diffused information,stock market rumors exert a negative influence on the healthy and stable development of capital market.We focus on an important information intermediary,namely financial analysts,and investigate the impact of stock market rumors on analysts'forecasting behaviors and the underlying mechanism.We find that the arising of rumors about listed firms lower the accuracy of analysts'earnings forecasts.Moreover,there is also a negative association between the frequency of rumors and the analysts'forecast accuracy.Our mechanism analyses suggest that stock market rumors impair the accuracy of earnings forecasts mainly via enhancing the difficulty of information processing and distracting the attention of analysts.And the impact of negative rumors on the accuracy of analysts'earnings forecasts is more pronounced than that of positive rumors.We contribute to the literature and research perspectives regarding to the economic consequences of stock market rumors and the determinants of analysts'forecasting behaviors.Additionally,our findings provide beneficial reference for regulating rumors and further promoting the high-development of Chinese capital market.

关 键 词：股市传闻 分析师预测精确度 利好传闻 利空传闻 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]