服务深化改变货币政策冲击的效果了吗?——基于两部门新凯恩斯价格粘性视角  

Does Services Deepening Change the Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks?Based on the Two-sector New Keynesian Model

作　　者：彭刚 李超 石微巍 PENG Gang;LI Chao;SHI Wei-wei

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学欧洲问题研究中心 [2]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2022年第7期71-86,共16页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“欧洲经济一体化的新动向与中欧经贸合作研究”(项目编号:17JJDGJW012)。

摘　　要：制造业部门向服务业部门的转型升级过程中,伴随着两个部门的中间生产结构服务日益密集化的特征。具体表现为服务品和制造品共同作为两个部门的生产要素,服务品的使用占比随时间累积不断提高,即服务深化。服务品的价格粘性高于制造品,服务品的使用比例提高增加了两个部门和经济总体的价格粘性。价格粘性上升使得部门和经济总体面临货币政策冲击时,价格难以调整,部门和总体的实际产出和通货膨胀对名义利率冲击的响应大小发生改变。本文利用1996—2020年季度数据构建实际产出、消费者价格指数和名义利率在内的一个SRVAR系统,发现了服务深化改变货币政策冲击效果的经验事实,且在两部门新凯恩斯模型基础上,揭示了服务深化的原因并对其改变货币政策冲击效果进行了数值模拟,据此给出相应的政策建议。The transition from the manufacturing sector to the service sector is accompanied by the increasingly service-intensive characteristics in their productive structures.It means that service products and manufactured products both are inputted into production for these sectors,but the share of service products raise up over time,which is called by the deepening of services.Since the stickiness of the prices of service products is greater than that of manufactured goods,services deepening increases the stickiness of the prices of the two sectors and the entire economy.Increased price stickiness makes it difficult to adjust prices for two sectors and the entire economy when central bank exerts a monetary policy shock.Furthermore,the response of the real output and inflation to the interest rate shock for two sectors and the whole economy is different from before.We use the 1996-2020 quarterly data to build an SRVAR system which includeds real output,inflation,and nominal interest rates,and find that services deepening changes the effect of monetary shocks.In addition,we show that the reasons of services deepening and numerically simulate how it change the effect of monetary shocks with New Keynesian multisectoral model.Consequently,we give some policy suggestions.

关 键 词：服务深化 货币政策冲击 生产率异质性 产业结构变迁 经济波动 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F822.2F822.5