基于模糊概率方法的地质灾害危险性评价  

Risk Assessment of Geological Hazards based on Fuzzy Probability Method

作　　者：雷进生[1] 党润萌 刘婉纯 石智强 Wu Chao;Wu Jianbin;Lei Jinsheng;Dang Runmeng;Liu Wanchun(PowerChina Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310000;China Three Gorges University,college of civil&architecture engineering,Yichang Hubei 443002)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学土木与建筑学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《灾害与防治工程》2021年第2期54-62,共9页Disaster and Control Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51709155,51279092)。

摘　　要：地质灾害是迁建集镇选址中不可忽略的致灾因素。地质灾害是一种多因素破坏性的地质现象,且具有复杂、潜在、楔糊、不确定等特性。结合金沙江白鹤滩水电站项目两个建设迁建集镇的选址,分析地质灾害对迁建集镇选址影响因素的模糊不确定性和层次性,选取地质灾害评价指标并进行地质灾害危险性评价等级划分,应用模糊概率方法建立评价指标和评价等级之间的隶属关系,对迁建集镇选址地质灾害的危险性进行评价。评价结果与项目建设迁建集镇实际选址方案一致,说明在地质灾害评价预防方面基于模糊概率方法具有合理可行的应用价值。Geological hazard is a kind of disaster factor which cannot be ignored in the site selection of market town for relocation.Geological hazard is a multi factor destructive geological phenomenon.The factors themselves have the characteristics of complexity,potential,fuzziness and uncertainty.Combined with the site selection of two relocated market towns for the construction of the Baihetan Hydropower Station Project on the Jinsha River,the fuzzy uncertainty and hierarchy of the influencing factors of geological hazard on the site selection of relocated market towns are analyzed.The geological hazard evaluation indexes are selected and the geological hazard risk evaluation grades are divided.The fuzzy probability method is used to establish the subordinate relationship between the evaluation indexes and the evaluation grades.The risk of geological hazards in the site selection of relocated market towns is evaluated.The evaluation results are consistent with the actual site selection scheme of the relocated market town,which shows that the fuzzy probability method has reasonable and feasible application value in the evaluation and prevention of geological hazards.

关 键 词：地质灾害 多因素 楔糊概率 AHP 危险性评价 

分 类 号：P69[天文地球—地质学]