1970-2019年济南市极端降水事件时空变化特征  

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Jinan During 1970-2019

作　　者：赵芹蕊 徐立荣 时延锋 徐征和 徐晶 许功伟 ZHAO Qinrui;XU Lirong;SHI Yanfeng;XU Zhenghe;XU Jing;XU Gongwei(School of Water Conservancy and Environment,University of Jinan,Jinan 252000,China;School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering,Shandong Jianzhu University,Jinan 250101,China)

机构地区：[1]济南大学水利与环境学院,济南252000 [2]山东建筑大学市政与环境工程学院,济南250101

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2022年第4期140-149,共10页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42007153);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2020QE285)。

摘　　要：为了研究济南市极端降水事件时空变化特征,采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall突变分析、小波分析等方法,基于济南市1970—2019年49个雨量站50 a的逐日降水资料,选用12个极端降水指数进行研究。结果表明:年降水量(PRCRTOT)呈显著增加趋势(p<0.05),增加速率为31.04 mm/10 a;连续干旱日数(CDD)呈大幅下降趋势(p<0.05),下降速率为16.51 d/10 a,雨日日数(RD)、极端降水日数(R95)、极端降水总量(R95P)呈明显上升趋势(p<0.05),年降水强度呈下降趋势(p<0.05),其余指数呈不显著增加趋势;研究区雨日日数、极端降水日数、极端降水总量、连续干旱日数及年降水量发生明显突变,其他指数突变不明显;在周期变化上,多数指数存在22~27 a,17~17 a,7~10 a,4~5 a的主振荡周期;从空间分布看,极端降水指数的空间差异明显,大雨日数、1日最大降雨量、5日最大降雨量及年降水量高值区基本集中在原济南市中心城区、东南部山区和莱芜附近,低值区集中在北部郊区。总体而言,济南市极端降水事件频发,应重视城市排水,减少内涝风险。The spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation were analyzed for Jinan(from 1970 to 2019)on the basis of 12 extreme precipitation indices derived from daily precipitation data at 49 meteorological stations with the help of linear regression,Mann-Kendall test,continuous wavelet transform and other methods.The main conclusions are as the followings.The annual precipitation(PRCRTOT)showed a significant increasing trend(p<0.05)at a rate of 31.04 mm/decade,while the continuous dry days(CDD)showed a significant decreasing trend(p<0.05)at a rate of 16.51 d/decade.The RD,R95 and R95P showed upward trends(p<0.05),and the SDII exhibited a downward trend(p<0.05),while non-significant increasing trends had been found for the other indices.Significant mutations were detected in the RD,R95,R95P,CDD and PRCRTOT in the study area,while there was no significant mutation in the other extreme precipitation indexes.Most extreme precipitation indexes had four main oscillation periods of 22~27-year,14~17-year,7~10-year and 4~5-year.There was great difference for most extreme precipitation indices in their spatial distributions.For example,the Rr25,Rx1day,Rx5day and PRCRTOT were high in the old downtown,the southeast mountainous area of Jinan City and Laiwu City,low in the northern suburbs of the study area.In general,extreme precipitation events occurred frequently in Jinan,so urban drainage should be emphasized to reduce the risk of waterlogging.

关 键 词：极端降水 降水指数 时空变化 济南市 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]