收入效应还是房奴效应?——基于中国家庭流动性约束现状分析  

Income stagnation,debt overhang,and household liquidity constraints in China

作　　者：宁磊 王敬博 NING Lei;WANG Jingbo(Institute for Advanced Research,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学高等研究院,上海200433 [2]上海财经大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2022年第6期1544-1559,共16页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71803118,72141303,71874105);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2019110084)。

摘　　要：本文探讨了中国家庭流动性约束的成因,对总需求的抑制,以及对新冠疫情影响的放大等问题.综合利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS) 2010-2018年的数据和疫情期间的网络调研数据,本文分析了收入降低产生的“收入效应”和房地产火爆导致的“房奴效应”对家庭流动性约束的影响及其对总需求的抑制作用,进一步地,本文还探讨了疫情之下流动性约束对总需求负面冲击的放大效果.研究发现,疫情前中国家庭面临的流动性情况已经在逐渐恶化,受到流动性约束家庭的比例由2010年的24.37%上升至2018年的35.31%.对于中等收入阶层而言,同“收入效应”相比,“房奴效应”的影响更为显著,是使家庭可能陷入流动性约束中的主要原因.同时,流动性约束会显著影响消费,与未受到流动性约束的家庭相比,受到流动性约束家庭的消费降低6.9%左右.针对流动性约束对疫情影响的放大作用,我们发现,相对于有房无贷的家庭,有房有贷的家庭以及无房的家庭在疫情期间消费下降更多,储蓄降低更多,更可能陷入流动性约束,且对2020年下半年的消费更加保守.本文的分析不但为中国消费低迷提供了新的解释,同时也为需求侧改革提供了依据.This paper studies the causes of household liquidity constraints in China,the inhibiting impact of liquidity constraints on aggregate demand,and the amplifying effect of liquidity constraints on the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Using the China family panel studies(CFPS) 2010-2018 and Internet survey data during the pandemic,we analyze the impact of the "income effect" caused by income decline and the "debt overhang effect" caused by real estate boom on household liquidity constraints.Furthermore,we also explore the amplifying effect of liquidity constraints on negative demand shocks during the pandemic.We find that,liquidity of Chinese households had been gradually deteriorating before the pandemic,specially,from 2010 to 2018,the ratio of China ’s households who were subject to liquidity constraint was increasing from 24.37% to 35.31%.For the middle-income class,compared with the "income effect",the "debt overhang effect" is more significant,and is the main driver of making households possibly subject to liquidity constraints.Meanwhile,liquidity constraints significantly affect consumption,compared with households without liquidity constraints,households with liquidity constraints decrease their consumption by 6.9%.To the amplifying effect of liquidity constraints on the impact of pandemic,we find that,compared with homeowners without mortgage,homeowners with mortgage and households without housing both reduced more consumption,saved more,are also more likely to fall into liquidity constraints,and more conservative on consumption in the second half of 2020.This paper not only provides a new explanation for the sluggish consumption in China,but also provides a basis for demand-side reform.

关 键 词：流动性约束 收入效应 房奴效应 家庭消费 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F063.2