基于断点回归的京津冀区域协同发展政策临界效应评估及政策建议  

Evaluation of the Critical Effect of Coordinated Development Policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on the Regression Discontinuity

作　　者：张满银[1] 卞小艺 Zhang Manyin;Bian Xiaoyi

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学,北京100083

出　　处：《区域经济评论》2022年第4期45-52,共8页Regional Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急项目“区域规划实施评估理论方法机制与案例研究”(71641027);中央基本业务科研经费精品文科、特色理科资助基金(FRF—BR—18—004B)。

摘　　要：京津冀区域协同发展是中国区域经济协调发展的重大国家战略之一。以京津冀区域及周边200千米以内的40个地级市为样本,运用断点回归方法探究京津冀区域协同发展政策临界效应,实证结果表明:京津冀区域协同发展政策的临界效应虽然不显著,但已经揭示京津冀区域内部发展的差距过大,该区域虽然能耗强度低于周边地市,但劳动力资源的保障作用不足,且面临市场活力和投资动力不足的问题。应在分析京津冀区域协同发展存在问题的原因的基础上,进一步着力提升其政策效应。The coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is one of the major national strategies for the coordinated development of China’s regional economy.This paper takes the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and 40 prefecture-level cities within 200 kilometers of the surrounding area as samples,and uses the regression discontinuity design to explore the policy critical effects of the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The empirical results show that the critical effect of policies on the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was not significant at that time.It has revealed that the gap between the internal development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is too large.Although the energy consumption intensity of this region is lower than that of the surrounding cities,it is facing the problems of labor resources,the market vitality and investment power is insufficient.Based on the analysis of the causes of its problems,this paper puts forward some targeted suggestions to further improve its policy effect.

关 键 词：京津冀 协同发展 政策效应 断点回归 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]